The Hebrew newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported on Saturday that "the Houthis are expanding into Africa and approaching Israel," considering that "the danger is greater than what we see now."
The newspaper noted that "the United States is frustrated by the 'limited impact' of the operation against Iran's more independent wing, which is now expanding into one of the most strategic regions for the Shiite axis and Israel," according to the newspaper, noting that "the Houthis are sending their weapons to additional countries—and in an unexpected and extremely dangerous region."
The newspaper pointed out that "in recent years, the Houthis have spread, among other places, to the Horn of Africa region, which includes Djibouti, Somalia (as well as Somaliland and Puntland), Eritrea, and Ethiopia. Their control over these areas has gradually become important, with the aim of consolidating their presence and moving closer to Israel. Moreover, the Horn of Africa and Sudan are of strategic importance: they are partly the other end of the Gulf of Aden, opposite Yemen, and partly extending along the shores of the Red Sea. Influence there—along with influence in Yemen—serves the purpose of enforcing a blockade on Israel, and could also help provide aid to Hamas in Gaza."
Yedioth Ahronoth noted that, "For example, in Somalia, the Shiite Houthis have expanded their cooperation with the Sunni terrorist organization Al-Shabaab, considered an affiliate of Al-Qaeda in East Africa, as well as with ISIS. According to reports published in recent months, including reports by the UN Security Council, Al-Shabaab held meetings in Somalia with Houthi representatives and requested assistance in the form of weapons and training. In return, Al-Shabaab pledged to expand its pirate activities, which are causing havoc at sea in the Gulf of Aden off the coast of Somalia, attacking commercial vessels and disrupting freedom of navigation. Al-Shabaab members have also promised the Houthis that they will collect ransoms from the seized ships."
In Djibouti, the newspaper reported that "the Houthis' influence in Djibouti may make it easier to close shipping lanes en route to Israel."
The newspaper cited the story of a Djiboutian citizen from the Afar tribe who recruited young men for the Houthis in exchange for money, noting that "the lure was an Iranian promise to the Afar tribe that Tehran would support the tribe economically and militarily until it was liberated from the rule of Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Eritrea, just as it supported Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Among other things, they promised to be a 'great and effective force' in the Red Sea."
In this regard, Danny Citrinovitch, a research fellow with the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies and a former head of the Iran branch of the Israeli intelligence agency's research division, said that the Houthis appear to be the Iranian proxy supposedly operating in Africa—and also recruiting African operatives to establish an active capacity on the continent.
"Strategically, the focus is on the Horn of Africa, but the Houthis have previously threatened to attack Israel at the Cape of Good Hope (in southwest Africa, where the Atlantic meets the Indian Ocean). There have been reports that they want to establish a presence in North Africa as well. They have a natural connection to African history, much more so than the Iranians, and so they are spearheading this move. We should be very concerned about the intention to create the capacity to operate in those countries," he added.
Citrinovic emphasized that "the Houthi threat is not just the threat we currently see in the Middle East, in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and in the threat of attacks on Israel, but it is also a potentially greater threat to Israeli and Western interests. The campaign against the Houthis should not be limited to Yemen alone, but the Houthi problem should also be viewed from an African perspective."
According to Citrinovic, "Any al-Shabaab gain in the region would be dramatic for the Houthis, as it would open up new areas of control for them. In this case, the ideological differences between Sunnis and Shiites make no difference at all. Ultimately, it's a matter of deep strategic interests that serve both sides. The story is similar in Sudan – a strategic smuggling route, where Iran has a strong hold and is actively assisting military ruler Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who declared last week from the presidential palace that 'Khartoum is free.'"
Citrinovic said that since the Houthis act on behalf of Iran in Africa, they are likely to have a significant presence in Sudan - and the same applies to Eritrea.
Meanwhile, General Michael Langley, commander of the US Africa Command, said that al-Shabaab has "direct ties" to the Houthis. He added that President Donald Trump has authorized him to expand operations against al-Shabaab, which will now be "more robust."
The newspaper noted that "at present, the United States has no announced plan to topple the Houthi regime in Yemen. CNN reported last night that the total cost of the new operation against the Houthis is already approaching $1 billion, even though the strikes have had only a "limited impact" on the Houthis' capabilities. The report also indicated that it appears the Pentagon will have to request additional funding from Congress to continue the strikes, but it may not receive it—given opposition to the operation from both sides of the aisle in the House of Representatives."
“As long as this is the case, the Houthis’ rise in Africa is likely to continue—and Israel should keep an eye on it,” Citrinovic said. “It’s a large-scale, long-term campaign, and with the right work, it will be possible to at least limit the Houthis’ influence,” he said, adding another interesting point: that in this case, it might be wise for Israel to cooperate with Turkey, which has a significant stake in Somalia. “There aren’t many issues where Israel and Turkey share common interests, but stabilizing the situation in Somalia is a goal that serves the strategic logic of both countries—and the United States as well.” He also points to Egypt, whose blockade of shipping lanes has significantly reduced its revenues from the Suez Canal, and Saudi Arabia, which has been fighting the Houthis for years, as partners.
"I believe that ultimately there will be no choice but to overthrow this regime," he concluded. "The US strikes are doing a good job, but strategically they are failing to build a balance of deterrence against the Houthis, who may suffer—but their motivation to act has peaked."