When will the solar activity peak?

Experts from the Russian Meteorological Center expect solar activity to peak in the current 11-year cycle in 2024 or 2025.

“2023 marks the continuation of the 25th solar cycle (which began in 2021) of the 11-year solar activity cycles. This solar cycle is expected to be slightly stronger than the 24th solar cycle because it has actually exceeded official expectations by more than 35 months in a row, so solar activity is expected to peak in 2024 or 2025. This solar cycle has plenty of time to intensify, increasing the number and intensity of X-ray flares, geomagnetic storms and auroras, even at mid-latitudes,” the report on the state of the environment and pollution for 2023 said.

It is worth noting that the integrated solar activity in 2023 corresponded to a “high” level for 9 days, a “moderate” level for 324 days, and a “low” level for 32 days. For comparison, in 2022, the integrated solar activity corresponded to a “moderate” level for 187 days, and a “low” level for 178 days. Disturbances in the ionosphere were observed for 257 days, while it remained calm on the rest of the days.

The report indicates that the Solar Physics Department issued 954 warnings in 2023 regarding unfavorable and dangerous solar geophysical conditions, which is 1.7 times more than it issued in 2022.