Wang Yi meets with Ukrainian Foreign Minister. Does China want to take the lead in playing the role of peacemaker before the United States?

On July 24, 2024, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba held talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Guangzhou.

According to the website of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a three-hour meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Guangzhou on the 24th. Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said at a regular press conference that the two foreign ministers exchanged views on the Ukrainian crisis.

"Foreign Minister Wang Yi pointed out that... China has always been firmly committed to promoting a political solution to the crisis. President Xi Jinping's 'four shoulds' provide important guidance for this. On this basis, China and Brazil jointly issued a 'six-point consensus'... China believes that the resolution of all conflicts must ultimately return to the negotiation table; the resolution of all disputes must always be achieved through political means."

Mao Ning said that Wang Yi also stated during the meeting that "although the conditions and timing are not yet ripe," China supports all efforts conducive to peace and is willing to continue to play a constructive role in ceasefire and resumption of peace talks.

Kuleba: Russia is not ready for " good faith " negotiations

According to AFP, citing the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry on Wednesday (24th), Kuleba told Wang Yi that the Ukrainian government believes that Russia is not yet ready to engage in "goodwill" negotiations to end the war: "Kuleba reiterated Ukraine's consistent position that at a certain stage Ukraine is ready to negotiate with the Russian side, but stressed that the Russian side is not currently ready for this."

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry also quoted Kuleba as saying: "I believe that a just peace in Ukraine is in line with China's strategic interests. China's role as a global peace force is very important."

As the first senior Ukrainian official to visit China since the Russia-Ukraine war, Kuleba's visit to China will last until this Friday.

Is China anxious because it is afraid that the United States will resolve the Russia-Ukraine war first?

Michael O'Hanlon, director of foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution, told this station in writing: "I think China has been trying to play the role of pleasing all parties since the war began. Beijing wants to end the war, but only if Russia can accept it. Therefore, their interest in peace is sincere, but they are unlikely to be willing to put any pressure on the aggressor Russia. Therefore, this visit may not be as important as we hope."

Chen Pokong, a current affairs commentator living in the United States, told this station that Beijing's sudden invitation to the Ukrainian foreign minister was probably related to concerns that Trump might be elected as the US president: "He (Trump) said that within 24 hours of taking office, he would make Ukraine and Russia cease fire and achieve peace, so under such circumstances, the Chinese Communist Party is anxious."

Chen Pokong also said: "If the United States and the Trump administration come forward to solve the problems between Russia and Ukraine, then China will have nothing to worry about. China will not only not benefit from Russia, but will also offend Ukraine and will not benefit from it. So I think the Xi Jinping administration is anxious and wants to play the peace card before Trump takes office, so they suddenly invited the Ukrainian foreign minister to come, and he will stay for four days. This is a very rare thing."

China is an important political and economic partner of Russia and has claimed that its cooperation with Russia is "unlimited". However, in the Russian-Ukrainian war, Beijing claimed to remain neutral and insisted that it did not provide lethal assistance to either side. NATO members said that China was a "decisive contributor" to the Russian-Ukrainian war.

China did not attend the June peace summit in Switzerland in protest of not being invited to attend. But China and Brazil jointly issued a "six-point consensus" that supports holding an international peace conference recognized by both warring parties. Zelensky said at a press conference at the summit that China should make its peace proposal directly to Ukraine instead of conveying it through the media.

Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, a U.S. think tank, told this station that China invited the Ukrainian foreign minister to visit in the hope of maintaining its image as a "peace mediator" in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: "When China did not attend the recent peace plan meeting in Switzerland, Beijing felt it had to do something to remind the world that it could still play a role in peace talks and prevent war in Ukraine."

Why did Ukraine agree to its foreign minister’s visit to Beijing?

As for why the Ukrainian Foreign Minister agreed to visit China, Kaufey believes that President Zelensky is trying to show the world that the only viable peace plan at present is the Ukrainian peace plan: "Although China did not participate in the peace plan meeting in Switzerland, Ukrainians hope to continue to promote the idea around the world that they are the country with a peace plan, and Russia is the only country with a war plan. So I think the visit to China reaffirms that Ukrainians are seeking a fair and peaceful solution to this conflict."

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning mentioned on Wednesday that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said Ukraine attaches importance to China's opinions and has carefully studied the "six-point consensus" proposed by China and Brazil. Ukraine is willing and ready to engage in dialogue and negotiations with Russia. Of course, the negotiations should be rational and meaningful, aiming to achieve a just and lasting peace.

However, Chen Pokong pointed out: "Before Kuleba's visit, he said that Ukraine declined the 'six-point consensus' because the Chinese Communist Party did not maintain balance and fairness on the Russian-Ukrainian issue. So what this means is that the Ukrainian Foreign Minister said, if you invite me to visit, I will go, but we have to talk about the peace issue again." He believes that Ukraine is also very clear that China has so far unilaterally stood on the side of Russia, which is very unfair to Ukraine, but Ukraine's strategy is to try to stabilize China and make it return to the role of peace mediator. "So, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister will visit Beijing, but I'm afraid he won't hold out too much hope. Because Ukraine is ultimately very clear that the key to resolving this war is still in the United States, in Washington."

Has China's stance on the Russia-Ukraine issue changed?

The Russian-Ukrainian war has lasted for more than three years. Does the invitation of the Ukrainian foreign minister indicate that China's specific position on the Russian-Ukrainian issue has changed? Kaufey believes that China's position has not changed, which is one of the reasons why Beijing did not attend the Swiss Peace Summit: "Chinese officials have repeatedly stated that they believe that any peace talks must include Russia and Ukraine, and at present, Russia is unwilling to meet with Ukraine to discuss peace or ceasefire. So in this sense, China is indeed paying attention to Russia's interests. I think Kuleba's visit to China is just a continuation of China's role in trying to find a peaceful solution to this conflict. But I don't think China will succeed, at least not in the short term."

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken recently spoke at the Aspen Security Forum about China's current situation with Russia and Ukraine. He also stressed that China cannot please both sides, saying it supports peace in Ukraine while helping Russia continue the war; saying it hopes to establish better relations with Europe while helping to increase the biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War.

Chen Pokong believes that China's latest move reflects an anxiety that the United States may end the Russia-Ukraine war. The CCP is a speculative regime. Once Russia and Ukraine reconcile, the development of the regional pattern may not be favorable to China: "It (China) wants to take this opportunity to ease relations with Ukraine and close relations with Ukraine, and wants to show on the surface that it is not unilaterally on the side of Russia... After the Russia-Ukraine war, China still wants to restore relations with Ukraine, do business, and carry out the Belt and Road Initiative, etc., and may have these long-term and complex ideas."

However, under such anxiety, how much will Beijing adjust its stance? "I think the room for adjustment is probably very limited," said Chen Pokong . may still have to strike a balance on the mediation issue: "On the one hand, it wants to be the peacemaker before the United States, but this may also offend Russia. Because if it talks according to Russia's position, it will not be able to reach an agreement with Ukraine; but if it retreats from its previous position of supporting Russia and takes Ukraine's feelings into consideration, it will offend Russia. If China does not handle it well, it may offend all three parties - the United States, Russia and Ukraine."

Chen Pokong believes that on the Russia-Ukraine issue, it is ultimately the United States that will have to mediate and restrain Russia and Ukraine.