To prevent the United States from intervening in China, China may adopt the "gray zone" strategy to seize Taiwan's outlying islands first

On July 26, former U.S. White House National Security Council Director John Gibbs said at the launch of his new book "Boiling Moat: The Urgent Action to Defend Taiwan" that if China chooses to attack Taiwan in 2027, the "gray zone" tactics may be the means to achieve its goals.

Many strategists believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine was an unwise decision, and that equally authoritarian Chinese President Xi Jinping may also "unify Taiwan by force" at an unexpected time. In an exclusive interview with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, on Friday, John Gillard, former director of the White House National Security Council for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia, said that Xi Jinping had prepared to attack Taiwan several years ago, but the People's Liberation Army was not ready at the time, so the goal was postponed to 2027. This is the current consensus in the US political circles.

Analyzing Beijing's tactical options, Jian Yirong believes that Beijing will prioritize capturing Taiwan's outer islands . He explained, "Kinmen, Matsu, and even the Dongsha Islands in the South China Sea may be China's targets, the kind of thing that teaches you a lesson to prove that you can't count on the United States, almost like the 2012 conflict between China and the Philippines over Huangyan Island, but even more violent."

Jian Yirong said that China would choose to quickly seize these islands to create a "fait accompli" because neither the 1954 "Taiwan-US Mutual Defense Treaty" nor the "Taiwan Relations Act" mentioned Taiwan's outlying islands , so the United States could not intervene based on this: "Many people assess that China can take the outlying islands very quickly and easily, such as within a day. The United States will observe and figure out the situation the next day, rather than trying to defend... We hope that Taiwan can maintain it for a period of time, although it will be short, but Taiwan has to defend itself."  

If Beijing seizes Taiwan, it will break through the first island chain shaped by the United States and its allies, which will affect the sphere of influence of China and the United States in the Western Pacific. Taiwan plays a vital role in the global economy. If a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the US economy will also be hit hard. However, so far, considering the factors such as China's possession of nuclear weapons and being the world's second largest economy , almost no American leader has taken the initiative to clarify its position on this.

Jian Yirong said that this is one of the reasons why the United States advocates that Taiwan should be able to hold out for at least 1-2 months, and Beijing will also try to shape the war in the Taiwan Strait as a domestic affair based on tactical considerations, and even delay or even destroy the alliance and cohesion process between the United States and its allies. He said that Taiwan’s current defense direction is correct, but the most critical problem is the lack of ammunition, which makes it difficult to prevent China from continuously sending PLA troops through airports and ports that land in Taiwan: "I think Taiwan is only strong enough to fight for a few days, and cannot hold out for a few weeks, let alone a few months." 

Since Taiwan can only import Stinger portable air defense missiles or Javelin anti-tank missiles, the United States must also strengthen its military industrial production capabilities to effectively defend Taiwan; the picture shows Keelung. (Reuters photo)

Jian Yirong used the "Stinger" portable air defense missile or the " Javelin " anti-tank missile as an example. Since Taiwan can only import the above equipment, the United States must also strengthen the production capacity of its military industry in order to effectively defend Taiwan .

In addition to the use of force, another avenue China may take is the so-called "gray zone" tactics. The military community has different definitions of what "gray zone" tactics are, but generally speaking, they refer to paramilitary or non-military means that fall short of armed conflict. They are usually tailored to the weaknesses of the target country to achieve specific political goals in an incremental manner. Specific measures include cyber attacks, economic coercion, false information campaigns, or slowly eroding the opponent's power through military threats.

Jian Yirong believes that among all the "gray zone" tactics, the most serious is a complete blockade of Taiwan. His new book, The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan, has two chapters discussing China's possible military actions against Taiwan and "gray zone" tactics, as well as related countermeasures.