A new challenge is emerging for the Northern Alliance, which defeated the military council forces in Shan State and captured a large amount of territory along the China-Myanmar border. Those who try to profit from the rapidly changing political scene. Facing new alliances.
Among the numerous ethnic armed forces in Shan State is a powerful force that is China's influential ally. In addition, groups that sided with the military council, There are also militia groups that are not related to the opposition National Unity Government (NUG) and are not against the 2021 military coup.
In northern Shan State, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Burmese National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) launched the second phase of Operation 1027 last month, capturing key Military Council bases.
The TNLA group has completely taken over the military council camps in Nungcho Township and is moving towards Mokok town in the south, thus hindering the military council from reinforcing Lashio. Lashio is the largest city in northern Shan State and a trade gateway between Mandalay in central Myanmar and Muse on the Chinese border.
China has pressured the Northern Alliance to halt an offensive launched last January after Chinese intervention and the collapse of a ceasefire agreement agreed to by the two sides. The MNDAA Nine Committee also announced on July 13 a four-day ceasefire from July 14 to 18 in respect of the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China to be held in Beijing.
Around the city of Lashio, both armies are on standby and the offensive has slowed down for the time being. But the shootings did not stop completely. The military council continues to carry out airstrikes.
Although representatives from the Northern Alliance were sent to the Chinese city of Kunming for talks, China was unable to intervene to achieve another ceasefire.
MNDAA and TNLA are also retaliating in self-defence. With more Chinese-made anti-aircraft guns, the two groups are now more capable of attacking the military council's Mi-17 transport helicopters, which are used to resupply troops to remote bases.
While the war is intensifying in Shan State, the main groups in the region such as the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP) are on the sidelines. These groups are trying to limit the victory of the Twin Alliance and exploit the weakness of the War Council.
Tensions between the TNLA and the SSPP are worsening, with accusations being made about who started the attack.
The TNLA announced that the talks held in Pansai on July 13 to reduce tensions between the two sides were successful.
Although these positions have not yet reached the level of greater conflict, the SSPP is no longer involved in attacking the military dictator. In fact, the SSPP, like the UWSA, is on the side of the junta.
In the complex landscape of Shan State, we see ethnic loyalties and alliances. With an area of over 155,000 square kilometers (over 60,000 square miles), Shan State is the largest of the 14 provinces in Myanmar and accounts for a quarter of the country's area.
Shan State has a population of six million people, most of whom are Shan, and 9 other ethnic groups also live there. The TNLA represents about 500,000 Taang or Palaung people, while the MNDAA is made up of Mandarin-speaking ethnic Chinese based on the border of China's Yunnan Province.
As a result of the 1027 operation, the two members of the Twin Alliance are making significant inroads into the Shan-majority areas.
There are many ethnic armed groups in Shan State, including the SSPP and the Reconstruction Council of Shan State (RCSS).
But these groups are bitter rivals and lack manpower. armed forces Because resources are limited, no single group can control the entire area. Therefore, if you look at the political map of the central and southern parts of Shan State, it looks like spots on the body of a leopard.
Most of the armed groups in the region are opportunists and lack principles. No group has joined the National Unity Government, nor has it taken up arms to oppose the military dictatorship.
All three groups benefited from the instability in the country following the coup. manufacture and sale of methamphetamine; They profited from illegal businesses, including collecting taxes on it.
The Wa army is ready for war
After the launch of Operation 1027 on October 27, 2023, the SSPP attacked the rival RCSS. This is because the RCSS remains a partner under the Military Council's nationwide ceasefire agreement.
The SSPP was expected to be involved in the 1027 operation, but for now it seems they have accepted that last year's small attack on the RCSS, an ally of the War Council, is sufficient.
The SSPP had apparently pledged to contribute to the second phase of Operation 1027, but that commitment appears to have been suspended due to tensions with the TNLA.
Surprisingly, the United Wa State Army (UWSA) has moved beyond its self-governing 'Wa' region centered on the Pan San region on the Sino-Myanmar border.
The UWSA captured Tangyang, 135 kilometers (85 mi) south of Lashio, without firing a shot, and went on to capture Myel to the west.
According to reports, the UWSA is expanding its deployment along the western stretch of the Salween River, which raises questions for observers.
The UWSA, born out of the collapse of the Communist Party of Burma, has between twenty and thirty thousand troops, and is one of the largest and best ethnic armed resistance groups. Ostensibly named as a 'W' ethnic organization, the current leaders of the UWSA are all Mandarin-speaking ethnic Chinese. UWSA is seen as the closest intermediary of the Chinese government. UWSA has been autonomous since 1989.
The 'W' force was neutral in the anti-coup Spring Revolution movement, condemning the coup, Although it does not cooperate with the opposition, it is an important source of weapons for the opposition movement.
After the start of Operation 1027, the UWSA facilitated the withdrawal of the Military Council troops from the MNDAA occupied areas and continued to maintain relations with the Military Council.
After sitting on the sidelines in the three-year uprising against the military dictatorship, the 'W' force is fully armed and ready for military action. The 'W' force is a group that is ready to take advantage of the rapidly changing security landscape.
Important relationship with China
Many questions are raised about the reason why UWSA took control of Tang Yang and Myer.
The UWSA may be seizing territory to expand its foothold, but these actions appear to be deliberate and strategic. The UWSA cooperates with the SSPP and has significant agreements with the War Council.
Traditionally, UWSA and SSPP have been close teams, and SSPP has done so only with the help of UWSA in attacking its rivals, RCSS.
Tangyang is located outside the 'W' region and is not under SSPP rule, but is traditionally an area under SSPP influence.
Some believe that Tangyang was taken to prevent further fighting between the TNLA and the SSPP after the TNLA attacked a number of military council camps outside of Tangyang.
The UWSA issued a general statement to clarify the matter... that it entered Tangyang at the request of "preventing" conflict.
The military council approved this operation because 'WA' is better at capturing the city than TNLA. Or maybe I just watched because I couldn't stop it. Currently, it seems that SSPP is also involved in the administrative affairs of Myal City.
Have the military council troops in both cities fully retreated? It is not yet confirmed whether some of the administrative departments are still in place.
Currently, the UWSA is blocking the way for the three northern alliances to continue to the south of Shan State.
There is also an important economic reason to agree with China on the UWSA.
The three twin alliances controlled the highway leading to Chin Shwe Ho and Muse (not Muse). Because the Kachin Liberation Army controls all the border routes within their state, China-Myanmar border trade is interrupted.
With a population of 50,000, Pansan is not an important border crossing because of its mountainous terrain and difficult access, but it is the only accessible route for the military council to go to China. Mai Li and Tang Yang are on that path.
This was to maintain communication with the Council of War, which was becoming more and more isolated. The Chinese government may have given the UWSA the green light to move beyond its territory to prevent the Northern Alliance from seizing more territory.