According to the latest report from the Chinese Communist Party’s official media Xinhua News Agency, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met again on Wednesday (July 3) on the occasion of the SCO summit.
The Associated Press pointed out that this meeting was the second gathering of Chinese and Russian leaders since Putin's visit to Beijing in May this year. The meeting showed that the two men once again demonstrated their solid "strategic partnership" at a time when they were both facing continued geopolitical tensions with the West.
Zhuang Jiaying, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, believes that China and Russia, especially Russia, have demonstrated through their participation in the summit that they are not completely isolated from the international community, but the effect of China and Russia using this stage to expand their influence is limited. He said that the member states may reach some substantive agreements on economic and trade cooperation, but even so, they cannot provide new growth points for the domestic economic recovery of China and Russia.
He said: "For China, there will be certain guarantees in terms of trade and energy imports, which can make its economy more stable, but stability does not mean growth. As for Russia, its energy can be exported to other countries, including China, through Central Asian countries, which will also have a certain economic security effect."
Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Wilson Center, a U.S. think tank, said in an interview with this station: "Obviously, China hopes to use the SCO, BRICS, the Belt and Road Initiative, the three major development initiatives and various other regional forums to strengthen its position as the 'leader of the global South.' In other words, China hopes to be seen as providing a complete set of solutions to replace the systems, norms and values established after World War II."
However, as the Russia-Ukraine war enters a critical stage, the close relationship between China and Russia is attracting the attention of Asian countries including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Japan and Australia.
Bloomberg also reported that Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an interview recently that China's dependence on Russia has made it stronger, and China only needs one phone call to end the war launched by Russia in Ukraine.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also pointed out at a seminar at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, on Monday that as the security risks posed by China and Russia increase, China continues to provide assistance to Russia, playing a role in fueling Russia's development into one of the biggest security threats facing Europe. Therefore, U.S. policy needs to break down the barriers between European and Asian alliances.
"I think China's goals are very clear. Over time, over the next few decades, it's clear that they want to be the leading dominant power in the international system militarily, economically and diplomatically," Blinken pointed out. "If their vision for the world matched ours or many other countries, that would be one thing, but they have a different view of the future. So we're going to compete very vigorously to make sure that we can shape the future effectively."
However, can Putin and Xi Jinping reach a certain consensus on ending the Russia-Ukraine crisis during this meeting? Dai Bo analyzed that the probability of China and Russia reaching a substantive consensus is extremely low.
“They may be able to come up with a document saying ‘respect the legitimate security concerns of all countries’, ‘hegemony is not good’ and other vague, meaningless things, and Russia will claim that this is a sign of Chinese support, but so what?” he said. “Even China does not want to fully participate in Russia’s brutal aggression, and Central Asian countries and India will not support Russia’s actions, even if they will not directly criticize Russia’s aggression.”
The SCO is a political and security organization initiated by China and Russia in 2001. Its member states include five Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, as well as India, Iran and Pakistan. The summit is expected to focus on economic, energy and counter-terrorism issues, while also touching on the Russian-Ukrainian war and other geopolitical issues.
Dai Bo analyzed that due to the differences within the "Global South", questions such as whether this group needs to be led, whether it opposes developed democratic countries like China and Russia, and whether China can come up with a perfect alternative remain. Therefore, he believes that it is difficult for China to balance the influence of the West on the international stage through regional forums such as the SCO.