Voting begins in legislative elections that could put the far right in power in France

French voters face a historic choice on Sunday as they head to the polls in the first round of a high-stakes legislative election that could pave the way for the far right to take power in a week's time.

Polling stations will open at 8:00 (6:00 GMT) and voting will continue until 18:00 (16:00 GMT) until 20:00 in major cities, at which time the preliminary results of this election will appear. Which could cause a real revolution in the French political scene.

The National Rally party, represented by its president, Jordan Bardella (28 years old), has 34 to 37% of voting intentions in opinion polls, which could lead to an unprecedented scenario with it obtaining a relative or absolute majority after the second round on July 7.

Opinion polls, which must be viewed with caution in light of the extreme uncertainty of the situation, indicate that the National Rally is ahead of the leftist New Popular Front coalition, which combines between 27:5 and 29% of voting intentions, and the current presidential majority from the center right, which obtains 20 to 29 percent of voting intentions. 21%.

If Bardella becomes prime minister, it will be the first time since World War II that France has been ruled by a far-right government.

President Emmanuel Macron caused a real political earthquake on June 9 when he announced the dissolution of the National Assembly, immediately after it became clear that his bloc had failed in the European Parliament elections, in a risky gamble that shocked France and abroad.

Despite its internal differences, the left succeeded in building a coalition in the following days. However, the differences between the radical left party "La France Insoumise" and its socialist, environmentalist and communist partners, especially over the person of its leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a former presidential candidate, quickly resurfaced and cast a shadow over the bloc's campaign.

Meanwhile, the National Rally continued the momentum in a campaign that focused on purchasing power and immigration, without being affected by the ambiguity surrounding its proposal to cancel the pension reform approved by Macron, or by the controversy that its proposals raised about dual citizenship, nor by the controversial statements issued by candidates from its ranks.

Do the French contradict the polls?

There is great excitement throughout the country, and it is expected that the participation rate in the elections will be high, and may reach 67% out of about 49 million registered voters, a significant increase from the 47.5% recorded in the first round of the legislative elections in 2022.

More than 2.6 million proxy voting requests were registered, according to the Interior Ministry, more than four times the same number during a similar period two years ago.

French overseas and residents of the Americas began voting on Saturday, registering a much higher turnout than before and often expressing a sense of the seriousness of the situation.

Turnout in New Caledonia was 32.39% on Sunday afternoon local time, up 20 points from 13.06% in 2022, amid heightened tensions in the Pacific archipelago after riots following a vote in Paris on electoral reform rejected by separatists.

There was also strong participation at noon local time in Polynesia, reaching 18% compared to 15.8% in 2022.

However, it may be difficult to draw lessons from the first round due to the many factors that remain unresolved, most notably the expected significant increase in the number of constituencies in which three candidates will qualify for the second round.

Attention is also drawn to the number of candidates who will withdraw between the two sessions, while the rush to form a “Republican Front” that stands against the extreme right has declined over the years.

The camp of the current presidential majority faces the greatest amount of pressure, after Macron was elected president in 2017 and 2022, fortified by the necessity of forming a barrier against the extreme right.

On Thursday, he promised "complete clarity" in the voting instructions for the second round in the event of a duel between the National Front and the left, but so far he has been leaning more towards the "neither the Popular Front nor France Insoumise" approach, which is met with denunciation from the left and criticism even within his own bloc.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and members of his government are scheduled to meet at the Elysee Palace on Monday afternoon to discuss the withdrawal of candidates and the strategy to be adopted against the National Rally.

These elections are taking place after two years in which the presidential bloc had only a relative majority in the National Assembly, which forced the Macronists to look for allies whenever they wanted to propose a text, or even use a clause in the constitution that allows them to pass budgets and reform the pension system without a vote.

With the National Rally winning the European elections, obtaining 31.4% of the votes compared to 14.6% for the Macronist camp, events accelerated, pushing the president to make choices that put him in front of a scenario of “coexistence” with Bardella.

In its modern history, France has known three periods of coexistence between a president and a government of different orientations, during the era of François Mitterrand (1986-1988 and 1993-1995) and during the era of Jacques Chirac (1997-2002).