The military seized power, The Belgium-based International Conflict Monitoring Group (ICG) has released a report on the possibility that Myanmar, which is being attacked by ethnic armed groups, may be divided. Myung Myint Maung was contacted by Richard Horsey, an expert on Myanmar issues who wrote this report.
RFA: Thank you for allowing me to ask this question. The International Conflict Monitoring Group (ICG) published a report entitled "Ethnic Self-Government and its Consequences After the Military Coup in Myanmar". As a Myanmar expert who wrote this report, tell us about the important findings from this report.
Richard Horsey: In the past seven months, the Burmese army has been occupying territories, Many people who study and observe Myanmar affairs already know that many military camps and towns and villages were lost. Our report analyzes how this loss will affect the future of Myanmar. According to our observations, the attitudes of the leaders of the ethnic armed groups have recently changed. Many ethnic leaders felt that they could not achieve their goals by simply taking up arms and fighting, in some cases until October last year, before the military seized power. Myanmar's ethnic armed groups have been fighting for autonomy for some 70 years. There are already about 80. They believed that both armed struggle and peace negotiations with the central government would be successful. Maran Branson, the late Kachin leader, said that although they are fighting in the jungles with armed forces, they will be able to fight from the political table to become an autonomous Kachin state. But all these ideas changed after the '1027' operation. Now, the most powerful ethnic groups can control their regions through armed struggle alone. Just look at Rakhine State. About 12 years ago, when I first started talking about the goal of Arakan Dream, it was only a fantasy. Now, this goal is getting closer to becoming a reality. It is obvious that the ethnic leaders are gradually weakening the military council based in Nay Pyi Taw. This low power, Why negotiate with a military council when they are not sure how long it will last, they reasoned. Right now, they think it's time to fight as much as they can to control their own region. Due to this change of concept, the future vision of the establishment of a federal union of Myanmar is affected. Once this level is exceeded, the local groups can no longer be organized with the goal of establishing a federal form of union. Now, in a situation where the ethnic groups can get what they want without negotiation, to reach an agreement with the central government (higher than the federal administration), to what level of compromise do we need to make? Our team has researched what kind of future Myanmar will look like due to these changes.
RFA: Let me ask you something to make sure. How accurate is it that the attitude of the ethnic armed groups has changed? Is this an opinion directly known from the ethnic leaders? Or just the reviews of your experts?
Richard Horsey: Both. We, along with the leaders of ethnic armed groups, I talk to other members as well. After that, we summarize what ideas and opinions they have. Just sitting down and talking to an ethnic leader will not tell you exactly what you want to know. So based on what they said, We need to define it. When we talked to various people from our ethnic groups, before and after the military takeover, It is true that their opinions changed significantly before and after the '1027' operation. Before the seizure of power, all they talked about was peace talks. They only talked about how they would force the Burmese army to accept a federal system of government. Now this is no longer the case. At this point, they see it as impossible to get any sort of peace agreement that actually works.
RFA: In this ICG report, it is mentioned that there is a possibility of the fragmentation of Myanmar. Fragmentation is like the breakup of Yugoslavia. Does this mean that new sovereign countries will appear in Myanmar's place? Or will there be small autonomous states within Myanmar? What will the future of Myanmar look like?
Richard Horsey: When you say the country is fragmented, a lot of people think of the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. They thought that after the emergence of new small countries, there would be a pattern of endless fighting between ethnic groups. According to our analysis, this is not the way Myanmar is headed. What needs to be understood is that the division of Myanmar did not happen just now. Since Myanmar's independence, there are many areas that have been freed from the control of the central government and the military coup. It is not the first time that a united country will be divided. Speaking of what the future of Myanmar will look like, no ethnic armed group has yet spoken about its goal of declaring complete independence. But neither group will be satisfied with the federal level as before. Among the ethnic groups, Rakhine Army AA specifically stated that they want to be a 'confederation' style. Confederation (Confederation) is a form of governance in the 'Wa' region. There will be no central government influence at all, and everything will be managed by themselves. Nominally, it will remain a part of Myanmar. It's like 'one country, two systems'. As for the situation in Myanmar, it is 'one country with multiple systems'. In the 'Wa' region, we will govern in the 'Wa' style. Arakan style in Rakhine. Kachin will be governed in the Kachin style. This is no longer a federal form of union. This is the future where small autonomous states or states will remain part of a single country. There is also the possibility that armed conflicts between ethnic groups will occur again. between TNLA and SSPP; between TNLA and KIO; We have seen the tension between Rakhine Army (AA) and Chin groups. In addition to the control area, There will be competition to control resources. If we look back at history, we can see that there have been some military conflict attacks from these inter-ethnic competitions, but they have been limited. We were able to solve most of the problems by negotiating with each other. Myanmar's ethnic groups already have the experience of struggling in a situation where they are free from central government rule. So I think they will be able to survive under these conditions.
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