According to a report by Bloomberg News on the 18th , Lai Ching-te’s first speech after taking office as president will be carefully scrutinized by U.S. policymakers, and some former U.S. officials will come to seek signals on the incoming government’s strategy for relations with China. They will also be watching to see how Beijing responds.
The entire campaign of Taiwan's current Vice President, 64- year-old doctor Lai Ching-te, was not far different from outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen in terms of policies related to relations with the Chinese Communist Party. He said Taiwan is already a de facto sovereign country and vowed to enhance military capabilities to maintain the status quo in the strait. That could change, depending on the reaction of Beijing, which considers the island its territory.
Two Taiwanese national security officials said Lai's inauguration speech would emphasize the continuity of Tsai Ing-wen's policies. Officials also said that at the same time, China continued to increase pressure on the island, including daily incursions by military aircraft and restrictions on intrusions into the outlying Kinmen Islands. waters.
Officials said that under Lai, Taiwan will continue to deepen its relationship with the United States in areas such as regional security, trade and the broader economy. Regardless of which U.S. party wins the presidential election later this year, Taiwan will continue to work closely with Washington, people familiar with the matter said, adding that Taiwan maintains good communication and relations with both camps.
military plan
In addition to maintaining continuity with Tsai Ing-wen's administration, Lai also said that as Taiwan faces a more complex international environment, such as the war in Ukraine and the situation in Hong Kong, he will enhance Taiwan's military deterrence capabilities, work to ensure economic security, and cooperate with other democratic countries .
The Bloomberg report quoted Eric Tsang, director of the China Institute at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, as saying: "Lai will work hard to find a balance like Tsai Ing-wen, but will make adjustments as the term unfolds. "A lot depends on Beijing. attitude. If Beijing becomes more hostile and aggressive, Lai is likely to respond accordingly."
The report said that past experience shows that relations with China can be decided on the first day of taking office. In her 2016 inauguration speech, Tsai Ing-wen raised the possibility of continuing direct dialogue with Beijing, but did not explicitly say that Taiwan is part of China. Beijing quickly dismissed her proposal as insufficient, calling her remarks "an incomplete test paper."
The stance contrasts with how China handled its relationship with Tsai Ing-wen's predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou. In 2015 , President Xi Jinping held an unprecedented meeting with Ma Ying-jeou before Ma Ying-jeou left office.
stability commitment
Lai Ching-te echoed Tsai Ing-wen’s slogan of “peace, equality, democracy, and dialogue” as the basis for dialogue with China. He also said that his goal is to ensure that cross-strait relations are "stable and principled."
"We will work hard to preserve the status quo on both sides," Lai said in a recent speech at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit. "I will not rule out unconditional dialogue with China based on the principles of mutual respect, mutual benefit and dignity."
China said this week it planned to exert the same pressure on Lai as Tsai Ing-wen has done for eight years. It sent a large number of warplanes into sensitive areas around Taiwan and imposed symbolic sanctions on five Taiwanese political commentators.
Beijing provocation
The Bloomberg report quoted security officials in Taipei as saying that China's continued pressure on Taiwan is worrying and Taiwan will urge China to stop provocative actions that undermine regional peace and stability.
Lai's speech will also call for citizens to unite as China uses various means to divide Taiwanese society, including inciting competition between political parties. People familiar with the matter said that China's sanctions against Taiwanese political commentators are aimed at interfering with Taiwan's freedom of speech.
Meanwhile, U.S. economic, political and military support for Taiwan will only further anger China’s leaders.
A senior U.S. government official who briefed reporters at Bloomberg News this week said Beijing could be seen as a provocateur if it chose to respond with coercion to the U.S. delegation's presence at Lai's inauguration.
"Optimism and Hope"
Bloomberg reports that Taiwan is located at the crossroads of economic influence in the region and is a source of frequent friction between the two world powers. A major conflict in the region could have catastrophic consequences for global economic growth and supply chains, not to mention human casualties.
Bloomberg Economics estimates the cost of any direct hostilities at about $ 10 trillion, equivalent to about 10% of global GDP . That dwarfs the blows from the war in Ukraine, the coronavirus pandemic and the global financial crisis.
Both Beijing and Washington want to avoid conflict. The United States and Taiwan reached a trade arrangement last year, and President Joe Biden has repeatedly pledged to defend Taiwan if China attacks - underscoring Taipei's importance to the United States.
Lai seemed keenly aware of the risks, saying he would stand firm in the face of pressure from Beijing. "China's coercion only strengthens our determination to maintain democracy and freedom," Lai said this week. "We refuse to give in to fear. We choose optimism and hope."
According to a report by Central News Agency on the 18th, President Tsai Ing-wen said in a recent exclusive interview with the British Broadcasting Corporation ( BBC ) that the world situation is now very different, and many signs show that once relevant parties consider launching an invasion, democratic regimes around the world have the ability to unite and form a meaningful deterrent.
Therefore, Tsai Ing-wen said that under the premise of prudent response, the possibility of maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait is still high.
Tsai Ing-wen said that Xi Jinping may have his own plans for Taiwan, but she does not believe that the plans have been completely determined. The situation in both the world and China is changing, especially after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. The world situation has been very different.
Tsai Ing-wen pointed out that taking over Taiwan will inevitably involve paying a heavy price, and the Chinese leadership must carefully weigh whether it is ready to pay the price. She also said that of course Taiwan cannot rule out the possibility of any military conflict and aggression, but the collective efforts of all parties in the region have actually put pressure on China. The pressure faced by China is not only military, but also economic; the war will have economic consequences for China and set back China's economic development for years or even decades. Therefore, Chinese leaders must think about "Which is more important, whether to capture Taiwan or continue to develop the economy and society?"
Tsai Ing-wen also said that Taiwan has all the requirements to constitute a country, but it does not have sufficient diplomatic recognition. Of course China will say that Taiwan is part of China. As for what Taiwan represents at this stage, it should be interpreted by the people. The most important thing is still Taiwan's independent self-determination. It is a democratic government that enjoys freedom, democracy and progressive values, and is very proud of it.
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