Study: Average life expectancy in the world will increase by about 5 years by 2050

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The latest findings from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study predict that global life expectancy will increase by 5 years worldwide, by 2050.

Projections indicate that between 2022 and 2050, the average life expectancy for men is expected to increase by about 4.9 years for males and 4.2 years for females, that is, from 71.1 years to 76 years for men, and from 76.2 years to 80.5 years for women.

According to the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, the largest increases are expected to occur in countries where life expectancy is currently lower, contributing to the convergence of life expectancy increases across geographic regions.

This trend is largely due to public health measures that have improved survival rates for cardiovascular disease, COVID-19, and a range of infectious, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNN).

The study, published by The Lancet, explained that this trend is largely driven by public health measures that have improved survival rates from cardiovascular disease, Covid-19, and a range of infectious diseases, as well as from maternal and newborn diseases. and nutritional diseases.

This study suggests that the current development of noncommunicable diseases (such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and exposure to risk factors associated with noncommunicable diseases (such as obesity, high blood pressure, unhealthy diet, and smoking) will have Significant impact on the burden of disease in the next generation.

Based on 88 risk factors and associated health outcomes in 204 countries and regions from 1990 to 2021, scientists expect that more people will live longer, but spend more years in poor health.

Global life expectancy is also expected to rise from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years in 2050 (an increase of 4.5 years).

Global healthy life expectancy (the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health) will rise from 64.8 years in 2022 to 67.4 years in 2050 (an increase of 2.6 years).

“In addition to the increase in overall life expectancy, we found that disparities in life expectancy between geographic regions will decrease,” said Dr. Chris Murray, chair of the Department of Health Metrics at the University of Washington and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). “Although health disparities between higher and lower income regions will remain, gaps are narrowing, with the largest increases expected to occur in sub-Saharan Africa.”

Dr Murray added that the greatest opportunity to accelerate reducing the global burden of disease lies in policy interventions aimed at preventing and mitigating behavioral and metabolic risk factors.