On February 21, 2024, the Rand Policy Research Center (RAND Corporation), one of the most important think tanks in the United States, published "US Military Theories of Victory for a War with the People's Republic of China". (People's Republic of China) released a new report. This report focuses on the US's theory of winning the war against China's occupation of Taiwan. The report first considers the possibility of a major war between the United States and China, and emphasizes the importance of pre-discussing whether the United States can win this war. Next, five key victory theories are summarized for use by US and allied decision makers. Then the application of these theories in practice, the advantages and disadvantages of each theory are given. At the end of this report, two practical theories of possible success are the theory of "denial" (i.e. leading the "enemy" to believe that it is unlikely to achieve its objectives) and the theory of military spending (i.e. discouraging the "enemy" by showing strong military power). Analyzed.
Jacob Heim, a senior policy researcher and political analyst at the RAND Research Center, who prepared this report, answered our questions about the report in an interview with our radio station.
"This report analyzes potential points for winning the war," he said. The United States may use this (theory) in a possible future war over China and Taiwan. A winning theory is a story that explains why one side won. This report makes a special attempt at the theory of military victory. Military victory theory refers to how the military achieves the political goals of war at the highest level. So military strategies are more detailed. It has many nuances, and the theory of military victory is actually a concise story of how the military can achieve political goals. So the first thing the report does is examine and analyze the theory of winning the war. The United States may use this theory of victory in a possible war. Then we also discuss in detail the risk factors that create different winning theories in this report. We have summarized the conclusions and analytical judgments at the end of the report. We have provided the best way and theory for America to win this potential war. We also provide a theory of ``denial'' that is considered the best winning theory in trying to reduce the risk of disaster spread. The theory of denial is, simply put, a tactic to convince an adversary in advance that they will be defeated militarily. It means to make them realize and explain in advance that they cannot achieve their desired military goals.
As a central point, the report analyzes a number of potentially viable military theories to bolster America's confidence in winning a potential war over China and Taiwan. That is, the military theory of victory is analyzed from the point of view of the US Department of Defense. The report recommends the following two theories to decision makers:
One of them is the "theory of denial". That is, the theory of convincing China that it cannot occupy Taiwan. In the case of using this theory, there will be less conflict and danger between the US and China, but there will be some difficulties in applying it in practice.
Another is the "military spending theory". That is, to discourage China by showing its military superiority, which would require huge military costs to encircle China from all sides; Convincing China that the cost of the war would be too high. Using this theory, the risk of conflict and war between the US and China is not very high. In other words, the goal can be achieved only by attacking China's sensitive facilities.
Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga (Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga), one of the RAND Research Center researchers who prepared this report, said:
The theory of "denial" is the focus of our research. Our research focuses on defeating China's aggression against Taiwan. Therefore, it can be said that there are many different actions under the theory of ``denial''. What is important here is that the US and its allies know that the theory of 'denial' is a good strategy for defeating China in a possible war and will put it into practice. "Only then can we win against China in a possible war."
The report states: "The theory of denial is the best way to deal with the risks of war and to succeed." According to the theory of ``spending military costs,'' the probability of success in a future war with China is somewhat less. "Due to the difficulty of finding and striking China's sensitive facilities, the risk of retaliation and nuclear war may be greater."
Professor Jacob Heim emphasized that the 'denial' theory proposed in this report is still a successful project, saying: "A naval invasion is essentially a particularly complex and difficult military operation. Therefore, the People's Republic of China has difficult obstacles to overcome in this war. They must overcome those obstacles to win. In comparison, America's job is simple. Because the United States is trying to stop this incredibly complex military operation (war). This is an important reason why we discuss the theory of 'denial'. Second, the US military has superior capabilities compared to the Chinese People's Liberation Army. One of these is undersea warfare and submarine warfare. This is obviously very important for countries that want to participate in military operations. Third, the United States responded to this (the danger of Taiwan's occupation). America's allies and partners also responded to this shift in the military balance. They didn't stop. Taiwan has increased its defense spending. That is, Taiwan has expanded the mandatory military service of those recruited. Japan has announced that it will double its defense spending. The United States is deepening defense cooperation with Australia and Japan. So this collective coordination and cooperation helps shift the military balance. That is, it helps to gain an advantage against China. So these explain some of the important reasons why our proposed 'denial' theory is still successful. We also summarize some very high-level comparisons of military spending and economic size between the United States and its allies and China. "While China has made some progress, the United States and its allies retain some important advantages."
In summary, the report suggests that the theory of "denial" is the most viable winning theory for the US in a future war with China over Taiwan. At the same time, this report also highlighted that the risk of escalation in the US-China conflict is still high, so it is very important to carefully plan the handling of the US-China conflict.