"Imaginary numbers"the true cost of climate change

A new study warns that global warming could cost the world approximately $24 trillion over the next 36 years.

Researchers believe that economic turmoil will spread across multiple industries by 2060, such as tourism, transportation, food production, and health care.

Heat waves, which stunt crop growth, will cost industry services billions of dollars, and floods caused by rising sea levels will require the construction of expensive new infrastructure.

This new study, led by Professor Dabo Guan from the Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction at University College London, takes into account indirect impacts in the global supply chain.

The climate impacts of greenhouse gas emissions include drought, wildfires, rising sea levels, more intense heatwaves, and extreme weather events, such as tropical storms.

The research team examined expected economic losses across three projected global warming scenarios, called “shared social and economic pathways” (SSPs) based on projected low, medium and high global emissions levels.

In a “best-case scenario” the world shifts toward a “more sustainable path,” with greenhouse gas emissions reduced and global temperatures rising by only 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels by 2060.

In the “midway” scenario, where the Earth is now according to experts, climate trends do not shift from historical patterns, and global temperatures rise by about 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius).

The frightening worst-case scenario shows how humans live in a world of “rapid and unrestrained growth in economic output and energy use,” with global temperatures rising by 12.6 degrees Fahrenheit (7 degrees Celsius).

The team believes that the expected economic losses will be about 5 times greater, given the highest emissions path compared to the lowest path. Depending on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted, the team estimates net economic losses at between $3.75 trillion and $24.7 trillion by 2060.

The study predicts that extreme heat in the future will cost Europe and the United States about 2.2% and 3.5% of their gross domestic product, respectively, under the high emissions scenario.

The year 2060 will also witness a 24% increase in days of severe heat waves, in addition to 590,000 additional deaths due to heat waves annually. But under the higher trajectory, there would be more than twice as many heatwaves, and an additional 1.12 million deaths per year would be expected from them.

Countries located near the equator may bear the brunt of climate change more than others, especially developing countries.

Indeed, developing countries suffer disproportionate economic losses compared to the carbon emissions they emit.

As global temperatures rise, governments will be forced to consider how to mitigate climate-related financial risks.

The study was published in the journal Nature.