China announced that the unemployment rate for workers aged 16-24 excluding school students in February was 15.3%

The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that the unemployment rate among the 16 to 24-year-old labor force in urban areas nationwide in February, excluding school students, was 15.3%, an increase of 0.7% from January. Compared with other age groups, the unemployment rate among youth aged 16 to 24 remains relatively high.

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The National Bureau of Statistics of China released February unemployment rate data by age group on March 20. The data showed that the unemployment rate of the labor force aged 16 to 24 in urban areas nationwide in February was 15.3%. The unemployment rate of the labor force aged 25 to 29 is 6.4%, and the unemployment rate of the labor force aged 30 to 59 in urban areas nationwide, excluding school students, is 4.2%.

In an interview with Radio Free Asia, Fang Chongyan, an assistant researcher at Taiwan's National Defense and Security Research Institute, pointed out that the data released this year mainly excludes university and college students. From the perspective of this number, it is shrunk. The accuracy is questionable. Whether external comments reflect the overall unemployment of young people Condition, accuracy is questionable.

New calculation standards exclude current students and Taiwanese scholars question fear of distortion

As for the true youth unemployment rate, Fang Congyan believes that it is difficult to speculate. Before the Chinese government announced a suspension of publishing youth unemployment figures, it was above 20%. "A Peking University professor said the figure is close to 50%. The only control group is like this. It's hard to say whether the official figure or this ratio is more accurate now."

Zhang Dandan, associate professor at Peking University, published an article titled "Youth Unemployment May Be Underestimated" last July. The article points out that if the 16 million young people who are "living flat" and "eating away" without working are also included, the actual youth unemployment rate in March last year may have been as high as 46.5%, much higher than the official 19.7%.

The "youth unemployment rate" originally released by China refers to the unemployment rate of people aged 16 to 24. Statistics on the employment situation of this age group began in 2018, but it is limited to towns and does not include rural areas.

In 2023, China's youth unemployment rate will continue to increase, reaching 17.3%, 18.1%, 19.6%, 20.4%, 20.8% and 21.3% respectively from January to June. It has reached a new high since statistics began in 2018, higher than the youth unemployment rate of 7.5% in the United States in June 2023 and 14.1% in the European Union.

China's youth unemployment rate hit a record high of 11.3% in June last year and was suspended after publication

After China's youth unemployment rate continued to rise and exceeded 20% last year, the National Bureau of Statistics announced at a press conference on August 15 last year that it would suspend the release of youth unemployment data. On the grounds that the labor force survey needs to be improved and optimized, he said that because the main task of school students is to study, the society has different opinions on whether students looking for jobs before graduation should be included in the labor force survey statistics, and the age range of young people also needs to be further defined.

After a lapse of five months, until January this year, China re-released its youth unemployment rate. By using different statistical standards, the relevant figures dropped significantly. The National Bureau of Statistics stated that the unemployment data after the change does not include school students. According to this method, the unemployment rate for the 16 to 24 age group in December last year was 14.9%; the unemployment rate for the 25 to 29 age group in December last year was 14.9%. The unemployment rate figure is 6.1%.

Fang Congyan mentioned that it is possible that the two sessions have just been held. Regardless of the work report and related meetings, it can be seen that the Chinese government is very concerned about employment and emphasizes youth unemployment and stabilizing employment. The data does not seem to be much different from last month. By 25 Those aged 29 and 35 to 59 dropped slightly from last month, perhaps reflecting that they attach great importance to employment issues.

Fang Congyan said that there are some signs that the actual unemployment situation should be much higher than what is currently announced. For example, the overall economic situation has not improved much, many policies have been introduced for real estate, the housing market has not improved much, and private and private enterprises that provide the main source of white-collar jobs have not made much adjustments and improvements.

Fang Congyan said: "The media revealed that jobs can be bought and sold on the Internet recently. With the rise of this industry, you can go online to do such transactions and spend a sum of money to buy jobs. The real employment situation is still very serious."

Scholar: Unemployment figures are doubtful and may be higher during graduation season

In an interview with Radio Free Asia, Wu Jianzhong, associate professor at the General Studies Center of Taipei University of Marine Science and Technology, also said that after the Chinese government revised the standards, it announced the February unemployment rate and unemployment figures, and announced the figures with great confidence. It can be seen that the figures are not included in the statistics. School students, this number is "beautified". In addition, he created so-called "flexible employment" in the "non-agricultural household registration" part.

Wu Jianzhong said: "You are considered unemployed only if you register for unemployment. If you don't register, you will not be included. The CCP's figures are not trustworthy. Some netizens said that his friend is 30 years old and is gnawing at his old age all day long. He is not included in the calculation for most of the year. In addition, the two The unemployment rate in March and March is different from the actual feelings of the people. College graduates in May, June, July and August are the parts that everyone pays more attention to. Now the number is only lower, not higher. The Chinese Communist Party official uses this method to reduce the unemployment rate , Sima Zhao’s intentions are known to everyone.”

Xinhua News Agency reported that the number of fresh university graduates in 2024 is expected to increase by nearly 2%, reaching a record high of 11.79 million, more than four times the number of fresh university graduates in 2004.

Wu Jianzhong also mentioned: "People over the age of 60 cannot retire, and people under the age of 60 cannot be employed. This means that the elderly have no retirement and no unemployment. If we continue to support this number, the unemployment situation will become less serious. Facts On the market, the current economic and employment situation is still quite severe, and stalls are being set up in various places. Opening your own shop and finding a small business are not included in the calculation."

Reporter: Xia Xiaohua Editors: Chen Meihua, Li Yaqian