The issue of developing joint European nuclear deterrent capabilities has returned to the forefront, after German politicians proposed developing these capabilities, in response to Trump’s recent statements about “not preventing any Russian attack on allies who do not fulfill their financial obligations to NATO.”
After being one of the biggest taboos in German politics, the discussion about joint European nuclear deterrent capabilities is escalating in Berlin, as a fearful reaction to Donald Trump’s success in assuming the presidency in the United States, after his statements about “not preventing any Russian attack on the unyielding allies.” their financial obligations to NATO.”
European countries have failed to deal with this issue many times, but it is returning today with the strategic threats posed by the war in Ukraine, and the isolationist policies that the American Republican candidate vows to implement regarding his relations with his allies in NATO.
The return of the European nuclear weapons file
In her statements on Wednesday, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, head of the German Parliament's Defense Committee, opened a discussion about the potential need for EU nuclear weapons in Germany. "This is an advanced system through which the whole of Europe must be protected," Strack-Zimmermann said.
These statements come in the wake of an article published by Finance Minister Christian Lindner on Tuesday, in which he pointed out the need for Europe to adhere to nuclear deterrence. Lindren wrote: “As long as nuclear weapons exist in the world, Europe will also have to adhere to the nuclear deterrence system so that it does not remain helpless in the face of blackmail by authoritarian states.”
Lindner raised the possibility of relying on France and Britain to provide this protection to the European Union, saying: “The strategic nuclear forces of France and Britain are already contributing to the security of our alliance and French President Emmanuel Macron has made various offers for cooperation.”
In the same context, the German newspaper Handelsblatt considered that Berlin could no longer ignore the logic of nuclear deterrence, saying: “Let us hope that Biden wins the elections, or that things will not deteriorate much if Trump is elected.”
Katarina Barley, a member of the Social Democratic Party led by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, said that Europe is not safely protected by the nuclear capabilities of the United States, and with the possibility of Donald Trump being re -elected as President of the United States, “the idea of a European atomic shield may be put on the table.”
The discussion moved to politicians in the European Parliament, and Manfred Weber, European MEP and leader of the European People's Party, told Politico: “Europe must build deterrence, and we must be able to deter and defend ourselves We all know that when the time comes to get serious "The nuclear option is the truly decisive option."
This is not the first time that there has been talk about a joint European nuclear deterrent umbrella. Indeed, French President Emmanuel Macron has always offered his country’s nuclear arsenal to be “at the heart of the European defense strategy,” but his offer was met with German rejection at the time.
In 2020, Macron proposed to the European Union countries a “strategic dialogue” about “the role of the French nuclear deterrent in our collective security,” criticizing the Union’s reliance on Washington to provide this strategic umbrella, saying: “The issue is not for the Europeans to know whether they should defend.” “Regarding themselves, with or without Washington But our security also and inevitably stems from the greater ability of Europeans to act independently.”
What changed Europe's position on nuclear deterrent weapons?
This discussion about the European nuclear deterrent comes after statements by US Republican candidate Donald Trump, in which he indicated that if he returned to the White House, he might “encourage” Russia to attack NATO member states that do not meet their financial obligations.
This came as Trump referred to a conversation he had with one of the heads of NATO countries, without mentioning his name, saying: “The head of a large country stood up and said: Well, sir, if we do not pay and we are attacked by Russia, will you protect us?” I said: If you do not pay, then you will "You're late on your payments. No, I'm not going to protect you. I'm going to encourage them to do what they want. You have to pay. You have to pay your bills."
These statements sparked reactions from European NATO member states, considering them a threat to destabilize the alliance's rules. European Council President Charles Michel described what the US presidential candidate said as "reckless statements that only serve the interests of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin."
The British Financial Times argued that the purpose of Trump's comments "was not to bully these laggards," but rather was revealing "the most extreme element in his isolationist vision of American foreign policy," which he summarizes in the slogan "America First."
This vision has raised concerns among European countries, which rely heavily in their defense strategy on US nuclear deterrence capabilities, deployed on the continent under NATO's Basic Law. These European concerns increase at a time when the Union faces a strategic challenge, which is its dispute with Russia, which possesses an estimated 5,889 nuclear warheads.
France is the only member of the European Union that possesses strategic nuclear weapons, and its arsenal is estimated at about 290 nuclear warheads, which is much less than the number of nuclear capabilities deployed by the United States in Europe, which is approximately 480 nuclear warheads spread across eight military bases on the continent.
European Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton had previously warned last January of the rise of “Trumpism” in the United States, which brought back the exposed threat of disengagement of American military engagement with the Old Continent and raised defense concerns on the European side.
Regarding Trump’s recent statements, Karin von Hippel, Director General of the Royal United Services Institute (a British research institution), confirmed that “leaders across the continent are more aware of what it (Trump’s statement) could mean this time, and even if Biden wins, they know that Congress has "It's still dysfunctional."
However, in the worst-case scenario, i.e. Trump succeeds and moves forward in disengaging militarily from Europe, the latter remains dependent on the will of a country that is not a member of the Union in order to fill the void of the absence of the American umbrella, so that he cannot rely on France alone in this mission. What is meant here is Britain's nuclear arsenal, which is estimated at 225 nuclear warheads.
Macron: Recognizing a Palestinian state is no longer a taboo in France
In a step that opens the way for recognition of a Palestinian state, French President Emmanuel Macron said that recognizing a Palestinian state is no longer taboo for his country, expressing his willingness to work on this with “partners” in Europe and the UN Security Council.
French President Emmanuel Macron has expressed that recognizing a Palestinian state is no longer taboo for France, suggesting that Paris may make the decision if efforts for a two-state solution falter due to opposition from Israel.
On Friday evening, Macron said in a joint press conference with Jordanian King Abdullah II in Paris: “Our partners in the region, especially Jordan, are working on this, and we are working with them. We are ready to contribute to it, in Europe and in the Security Council. Recognizing a Palestinian state is not "It's taboo for us."
The French President reiterated his call for a two-state solution based on the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, calling for a “decisive and irreversible push” in this area.
He added: "We owe this to the Palestinians, whose aspirations have been ignored for too long."
Macron's statements were the first time a French leader had made such a proposal, and highlight further impatience among Western leaders with the increasing human casualties in Gaza due to the Israeli attack on the Strip.
Macron warned during the meeting that an Israeli military attack on Rafah would lead to an “unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe,” considering that the “absolute priority” was a “ceasefire agreement.”
He continued: "We share concerns with Jordan and Egypt regarding forced and mass population displacement."
Macron's comments are likely aimed at increasing pressure on Israel.
French lawmakers voted in 2014 to urge their government to recognize Palestine, a symbolic move that had little impact on France's diplomatic stance.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed his opposition to Palestinian sovereignty, saying that he would not give up full Israeli security control over the west of the Jordan River, and that this conflicts with the establishment of a Palestinian state.
The devastating Israeli aggression against the small, densely populated Gaza Strip led to the death of more than 28,000 Palestinians, the leveling of built-up areas to the ground, and leaving most of the Strip's 2.3 million residents homeless.
About 140 member countries of the United Nations recognize the State of Palestine, while most Western European countries, including members of the Group of Seven, do not recognize it, under the pretext that it “must arise from negotiations” with Israel.
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