With the start of the US election season, Will the Democratic Party abandon Biden?

With the presidential election less than a year away, the United States appears ready for a rematch between Biden and Trump. Are the Democrats stuck with Biden? Or do they have an alternative plan to replace him?

The United States general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024. In early 2024, the Democratic and Republican presidential nominating contests will be held, which will elect delegates to the two parties' nominating conventions. These conventions will be held in July (for Republicans) and August August (for Democrats), officially choosing the presidential candidates for their parties.

With less than a year left until the presidential elections, the United States appears ready for a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. While Biden says he wants a second term to "finish the job," only about 40% of Democrats wish Biden to continue in office, according to recent polls.

Opinion polls show that more than 55% of Americans do not approve of Biden (81 years old), who is the oldest president of the United States since the day he took office. Most recent polls have put him on par with Trump or slightly behind him. Are the Democrats stuck with Biden? Or do they have a plan to replace him?

The numbers are not in Biden's favor

“There's no other way to put it,” CNN political director David Chalian said while sharing the results during election night coverage of a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

Only about 40% of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, and only a quarter of them believe he has the stamina and acuity needed to serve effectively.

Concern about Biden's fitness has so far cost him more in the polls than former President Donald Trump, despite their relative closeness in age, and Trump's recent verbal gaffes. More than half of registered voters in the CNN poll said that Trump has the strength and stamina to work effectively.

While another poll conducted by the Associated Press showed that one in three Democrats and more than half of Americans (56%) do not want Biden to be the Democratic nominee. According to Gallup, Biden ends the year with an overall approval rating of 39%, the lowest among presidents in their first term and 11 months before the election since the 1940s, according to the British newspaper The Times .

Democrats are worried

The bad news for Democrats is that most people don't like their president, and there is real concern that he may be the first Democrat to lose a reelection bid since Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980. Only one Democratic president since the Civil War, Carter, has lost his bid. He was re-elected, and all other single-term presidents, including Trump, have been Republicans.

Democrats' fear is driven by Biden's approval rating and support among young voters falling significantly in recent polls. In November, the latest national poll from NBC News showed Biden currently in a close race with former President Donald Trump for voters between the ages of 18 and 34, a sharp decline from the high margins over Trump in the 2020 election. .

Alarms are also growing among Democrats about the possibility that Muslim American and Arab American voters will shun them in next year's presidential elections. Muslim Americans and Arab Americans have expressed increasing anger over President Biden's handling of the war between Israel and Hamas, with many community leaders warning that they will not vote for Biden next year, even if the Republican Party's alternative is former President Trump.

“The reaction of many around this issue within the Palestinian American community, and the broader Arab community, is really one of betrayal,” Youssef Mounir, a political analyst and senior fellow at the Arab Center in Washington, told The Hill .

Do Democrats have a backup plan?

Typically, parties almost always re-nominate their current president without difficulty, but depending on the strength of the initial challenges, the president could abandon his candidacy. Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman abandoned their bids for re-election. But in Biden's case, he has an almost insurmountable advantage, especially since he has the support of the Democratic National Committee's campaign machinery, and the support of almost every prominent figure in the party.

According to Reuters , despite weak poll numbers, including from some Democrats, about his age, Biden has stuck to his plan to run for a second term after clearing the field to serious Democratic competitors in the primaries when he announced in April that he would run again.

The only two Democrats running against him are Marianne Williamson, the author of self-help books, and Dean Phillips, the little-known millionaire and Democratic congressman from Minnesota. Both of them can barely compete at the polls.

While Kamala Harris, Vice President, has approval ratings even worse than Biden's. Two-thirds of Democrats who say the president should not run again have no idea who should replace him. Of the other third, Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, is the most popular choice. But Newsom is believed to be sharpening his plans to run in 2028.

Even if a strong competitor decides to enter the race against Biden, time is quickly running out. With each passing week, more states are closing their primaries to new candidates who are missing out on delegates, the important fundraising potential and media coverage that comes with early momentum, according to The Economist .

The worst scenario is that Biden withdraws without a serious competitor. But the time when he could have reasonably decided against his re-election bid would have been early 2023, which would have allowed other candidates to run the campaigns. If he withdraws now, it would create a crisis in the Democratic Party, so the chances of him doing so - barring a serious health problem - are very slim.

Military analyst: Washington's reduction of its naval presence in the region is not good news for Israel

Amos Harel, an Israeli military analyst in the Hebrew newspaper "Haaretz", said that the decrease in the American naval presence in the region "is not good news for Israel," although this American military reduction "may have been accompanied by a signal to Iran not to escalate the tense situation."

Amos Harel, an Israeli military analyst in the Hebrew newspaper Haaretz, feared on Tuesday that the United States reducing its naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean “does not bode well.”

The US Navy announced earlier Tuesday that the aircraft carrier "Gerald R. Ford" will return to its base in the United States after months of stationing in the Mediterranean region to protect Israel following the events of October 7, 2023.

Harel considered that "the latest surprising development in the Gaza war came from the United States" and that Washington's reduction of its naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean may be accompanied by a signal to Tehran not to escalate the tense situation in the region.

The military analyst referred to a report by the American ABC network, which stated that "the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford, along with its task force and other warships, will leave the Middle East during the next few days, heading to its main port in Virginia."

"This would leave only one US aircraft carrier in the region, the Dwight D. Eisenhower," he said.

He recalled that “the two ships were sent, one to the Mediterranean and the other to the Arabian Gulf, after the Hamas attack on October 7, on the orders of US President Joe Biden and despite this, Iran was not deterred,” as he put it.

A message to Iran

Tehran faces accusations from Washington and Tel Aviv of “indirectly engaging, through its arms, with armed formations in the region,” by launching attacks against American and Israeli targets, which Iran denies.

Among these attacks are those adopted by the Houthi group in Yemen against ships “associated with Israel,” in solidarity with the besieged Gaza Strip since the beginning of the devastating Israeli war on October 7.

Since the start of the war on Gaza, international efforts have emerged, led by the United States, to prevent the war from expanding to neighboring countries, where many local armed formations supported by Iran are based, such as Hezbollah, which targets northern Israel from southern Lebanon, and the Yemeni Houthi group, which prevents. Passage of Israeli cargo ships from the Red Sea.

“The United States and Iran have engaged in a productive dialogue that includes confidential and open messages,” Harel said. “The reduction of US naval power in the region may have been accompanied by a separate signal to Tehran not to escalate the already tense situation as a result.”

Harel added: "But, it is also possible that it is a wrong bet here on America's part, and that Hezbollah will interpret this step as an opportunity for more risks."

He concluded that "the decline in the US naval presence in the region is not good news for Israel."

Biden and Netanyahu tensed

“American support for Israel’s war effort was widespread, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government does not have an unlimited credit line,” Amos Harel said, referring to the possibility of limiting this support.

Harel added: “Recently, tense phone calls took place between US President Joe Biden and him (Netanyahu), mainly about Netanyahu’s relations with the Palestinian Authority.”

He believed that "the continuous flow of statements made by far-right ministers in Netanyahu's government, which talk about transferring the Palestinian population out of Gaza and reviving Jewish settlements there, does not contribute to providing an atmosphere of confidence in Israel on the part of Washington."