A leaked defense document revealed how Germany is preparing for a World War III scenario starting with Russia on the eastern flank of the European continent. The secret document prepared by the German Defense Ministry envisions how a possible escalation of the war in Ukraine could develop.
With Russia and Ukraine still fighting after nearly two years and the war on Gaza expanding regionally, the European Union and NATO are feeling their way toward a chaotic global security order, prompting Germany, Europe's largest economy, to change decades-old ideas about security. Defense and the need to rehabilitate its army as quickly as possible.
A leaked defense document revealed how Germany is preparing for a World War III scenario starting with Russia on the eastern flank of the European continent. The secret document prepared by the German Defense Ministry envisions how a possible escalation of the war in Ukraine could develop.
The publication of the terrifying documents comes at a time when the Estonian Prime Minister warned Europe that it has between three to five years to prepare for the return of Russia as a serious military threat to NATO’s eastern flank. This warning came a few days after the Swedish Minister of Civil Defense warned that his country may soon face the possibility of war with Russia.
Clash scenario
The scenario, titled “Defending the Alliance 2025,” begins with Russia beginning a new wave of mobilization by calling up an additional 200,000 troops in February 2024, who could then weaken Ukrainian positions along the Line of Contact in an offensive next spring.
In July 2024, Russia will then begin covert cyberattacks and other forms of hybrid warfare on western and eastern Central Europe in particular, while inciting Russian-speaking minorities in the Baltic states. Ultimately, the political crisis in the Baltics will be used to justify a massive military exercise (similar to the one that took place in 2021), dubbed “Zapad 2024” in September, in which at least 50,000 Russian soldiers participated. In Belarus and western Russia.
Responding to the inevitable ultimatum of Western media and politicians, the document depicts Russia beginning in October to spread propaganda about an impending NATO attack, continuing to build up troops in Belarus, as well as shipping medium-range missiles to the Kaliningrad enclave. It will then become clear that Moscow's ultimate goal is to occupy the Sualki Gap, the Polish-Lithuanian land bridge between Belarus and Kaliningrad.
With everything in place, the outline indicates that Russia will wait until the US elections to begin the second phase of its plan. Anticipating that President Biden's narrow defeat and a hotly contested outcome would paralyze the United States for at least a few months, Moscow could begin fomenting artificial "border conflicts" and deadly riots around the breach in December 2024, repeating the 2022 invasion at the end of Ending up on NATO territory.
While Poland and the Baltic states will report an increased threat and request immediate help from NATO, Moscow will use its actions to accuse the West of planning an invasion against Russia at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council in January, and to issue orders to send more troops to the region “for defense.” About herself.
By March 2025, under this scenario, Russia would have two tank divisions, a mechanized infantry division, and a division headquarters deployable beyond NATO borders, with more than 70,000 troops in Belarus alone.
This would lead to a situation in which NATO would have no other choice but to agree to “credible deterrence measures” to prevent a Russian invasion of Poland and the Baltic region by May 2025. On “Day 10” (a hypothetical day), NATO orders the transfer of 300 1,000 soldiers to the area, including 30,000 soldiers from the German Army. The scenario ends thirty days after “Day 10,” but without determining whether NATO’s deterrence strategy has succeeded or led to open war between Russia and the West.
Vigorous German efforts
According to the German daily newspaper Bild, the scenario for the Berlin maneuvers relies heavily on a set of assumptions that must all occur before further escalation, but each element of the chain of events is presented as the next logical step.
In any case, Berlin appears to be taking this scenario seriously, as last week it announced a military exercise with armored infantry divisions from April 21 to 26 in Poland and Lithuania, the two countries bordering the Suwalki Gap.
While the scenario does not contain a major surprise to those familiar with the maneuvers, the timing of the leak has led analysts to suggest that it may have been intentional. The document indicates that Berlin is paying attention and preparing for confrontation while showing the most reluctant countries in Europe that it needs to take Russia seriously and that escalation is possible.
According to The European Conservative , the leak may also be a message to the German people so that they understand the seriousness of the situation. Recently, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that the country may have only 5 to 8 years to prepare for the next major conflict, hinting at the need to reconsider compulsory military service as well.
Before these documents were exposed, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, at the end of last October, that German society and the armed forces must prepare for a possible war in Europe, noting that the Russian-Ukrainian war was a historic turning point for Germany, and it should happen. “A change in mentality” within politics and society, according to what Anatolia reported . In case the Germans didn't understand what he meant, the leaked document paints a good picture.
For its part, Moscow ridiculed these allegations and described them as a “hoax.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday that he refuses "even to comment on this report." Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova rejected the allegations and described them as "strong horoscope predictions for the past year," Russia Today reported.
Britain The House of Representatives approves a controversial law to combat illegal immigration
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Thursday urged the House of Lords to pass a controversial immigration bill that would approve the deportation of immigrants illegally entering the country to Rwanda. He declared the bill an “urgent national priority” and called on the Lords to pass the text as soon as possible.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Thursday urged the House of Lords to approve a controversial immigration bill that would stipulate the deportation of immigrants illegally entering the country to Rwanda, considering it an “urgent national priority.”
Approving the law is a big bet for Sunak, who took office in October 2022, as well as for the Conservative Party, which has made it the pillar of its policy to combat illegal immigration, and both of them hope that the law will enter into force before the legislative elections expected this year.
At a press conference, Sunak declared the bill an “urgent national priority,” and called on the Lords to pass the text “as quickly as possible so that we can start sending planes” to Rwanda.
After heated discussions and division within the Conservative Party, with pressure from its right to tighten the draft law and the resignation of a number of party leaders, representatives in the House of Commons approved by a comfortable majority on Wednesday evening the controversial text, which faces severe criticism, including at the United Nations.
That vote for Sunak constituted a new test of the extent of his control over his divided party, which trails the Labor opposition by 27 points, according to the results of a new YouGov poll published Thursday.
The text, which considered Rwanda a safe country to which asylum seekers could be deported, was referred to the House of Lords, where voices opposing it were repeatedly raised.
“We have a plan that is bearing fruit,” Sunak said, stressing that the law is a “useful deterrent” to discourage migrants from coming illegally to Britain, especially in small boats across the English Channel.
Last year, about thirty thousand immigrants made this journey, after a record number of immigrants reached 45,000 in 2022. While 358 immigrants arrived on Wednesday alone, according to British Home Office figures.
After resignations within the Conservative Party and heated discussions in the parliamentary committee to try to tighten the text of the law, the draft law was approved by 320 votes against 376 opposing votes in the House of Representatives, in preparation for submitting it to the House of Lords, where it could be subject to amendment, aiming with its amended version to respond to the objections of the British Supreme Court, which amended the draft. In its previous form, it was illegal, and there were concerns for the safety of migrants if they were deported to Rwanda.
This major project was announced by Boris Johnson in April 2022 amid a political controversy in which opponents supported Rishi Sunak, who promised to prevent migrant boats from crossing illegally.