About every 11 years, the Sun goes through what is known as a “solar maximum,” when many strange dark spots called sunspots appear on its surface.
These sunspots, which can gather together and form what looks like an archipelago now, are the result of massive changes in the magnetic field of our star.
They also fire violent blasts of energy toward Earth, causing “solar storms” that can damage satellites and disrupt the Internet.
Unfortunately, a new study reveals that this solar maximum will come sooner than expected, likely in early 2024.
The new predictions come after an Indian team of researchers discovered a new relationship between the Sun's magnetic field and the sunspot cycle, which could help predict the peak date of solar activity, which contradicts NASA's previous predictions of its arrival in late 2025.
The new study was led by Dr. Dibyendu Nandy, a physicist from the Center of Excellence for Space Sciences IISER Kolkata in India. He said it was "impossible to predict the intensity and consequences" of solar storms this early, but we should learn more as the new year approaches.
He added: “More severe storms can sometimes lead to catastrophic orbital decay of low-Earth orbiting satellites and disrupt satellite-based services such as communications and navigation networks. They can also cause strong disturbances in the Earth’s magnetic field, leading to the disruption of electrical power networks.” located in high latitude regions.
He continued: "Of course, they also create beautiful aurora, so we can expect 2024 to be a good year for aurora enthusiasts."
Dr. Nandy and his colleagues were able to come up with a new way to detect the solar maximum, but understanding it requires some basic knowledge about the life-giving star in our solar system.
The sun is a huge ball of hot, electrically charged gas that moves, generating a strong magnetic field, officially known as a dipole field.
This dipole field, which extends from one pole of the sun to the other pole, much like the Earth's field, goes through a cycle called the solar cycle.
Every 11 years or so, the Sun's magnetic field completely flips, meaning the north and south poles swap places.
This solar cycle affects activity on the sun's surface, including dark sunspots caused by the sun's magnetic fields.
One way scientists can track the solar cycle is by counting the number of sunspots and the exact timing of their appearance, often using satellites.
The beginning of the solar cycle when the Sun has the fewest sunspots is known as solar minimum, but over time the number of sunspots increases. In the middle of the solar cycle, which is the solar maximum, the Sun has the largest number of sunspots. At this maximum solar energy, the most violent space weather is expected.
Scientists say that accurately predicting when this peak will occur - and therefore when the most violent space weather will hit Earth - has been difficult.
Scientists are already relying on evidence collected by Swiss astronomer Max Waldemeier nearly 100 years ago to make the best estimates of when the solar maximum will reach.
In 1935, Waldmeier found that the faster a sunspot cycle appeared, the stronger it was.
Therefore, as Waldmeier explained, stronger cycles, i.e. those with more sunspots, take less time to reach peak intensity.
This relationship, known as the "Waldmeyer effect," is often used to predict the strength of a sunspot cycle based on observations of its early ascension phase.
What Indian scientists did was find a new relationship, using archives of decades-old data from multiple ground-based solar observatories around the world. That is, the rate of decrease in the sun's dipole magnetic field is also related to the rate of increase of the continuous sunspot cycle.
Scientists used their new knowledge to predict exactly when the solar maximum of the current cycle will reach its peak, which is early 2024.
SpaceX rockets create red “holes” in the sky, which worries scientists
Astronomers at the McDonald Observatory in Texas have discovered a new type of “aurora borealis” created by the boosters or first stages of SpaceX rockets.
These boosters cause temporary holes in the ionosphere when they return to Earth after separation from spaceships.
Scientists said that temporary holes in the Earth's upper atmosphere, created by SpaceX rockets, create formations resembling bright red aurorae in the sky, and may be signs of unknown problems.
This phenomenon had previously only been recorded during the launch of some rockets, but it is now also caused by the return of SpaceX boosters, owned by American billionaire Elon Musk.
Scientists said the impact of the formations on SpaceX launches is still being evaluated.
SpaceX's aurora, unlike the streaks in the sky from previous launches, is "red, nearly spherical, and can be seen with the naked eye for up to 10 minutes at a time," according to Spaceweather.com.
Scientists pointed out that it is not a polar aurora as we know it, but rather bright red balls resulting from the burning of SpaceX rocket engines in the ionosphere.
“We're seeing two to five of them every month,” said Stephen Hamel of the McDonald Observatory in Texas.
Unlike the red lines previously observed when launching rockets, SpaceX's aurora results from falling rockets or stages.
In the case of one example observed in November, Dr Hamel said the red ball was caused by the second stage of a Falcon 9 rocket burning out its engines in order to deorbit and return to Earth, creating a hole in the ionosphere as it descended.
“We first observed these burns from SpaceX orbit over McDonald Observatory in February 2023,” physicist Jeff Baumgardner explained to Spaceweather.com.
As the rocket descends, scientists said it burns up approximately 180 kg of exhaust gases, mostly water and carbon dioxide, near the edge of the ionosphere where a large hole can occur.
Scientists are concerned that as SpaceX plans more launches in the future, the frequency of these red flares in the sky may increase, potentially interfering with astronomical observations.
“Their impact on astronomical science is still being evaluated,” Dr. Hamill said.
Previous studies have shown that an increasing number of rocket launches around the world are creating holes in the Earth's ionosphere, a layer of the Earth's upper atmosphere consisting of a sea of electrically charged particles floating about 650-80 kilometers above the surface.
Rockets and their exhaust flames tend to change the process by which charged particles form in this dynamic layer around the Earth, making radio communications on Earth possible.
Studies have shown that water and carbon dioxide sprayed by fast-moving rockets toward the edge of space could reduce the process by which this layer forms by more than two-thirds.
Scientists said that the holes that appeared in the ionosphere could also excite gas molecules in its upper layer and lead to the appearance of streaks of bright red light that resemble the aurora borealis.
These holes are identified by their distinctive red color due to the interaction of oxygen ions in the ionosphere with electrons from the rocket exhaust.
For example, the July launch of a Falcon 9 rocket carrying Starlink satellites created a hole over Arizona that briefly made the sky appear red.
Then last September, a US Space Force rocket launch blew a hole in the ionosphere over California, causing the sky to glow a dull red.