Armed conflicts and Myanmar's political prospects

The "1027 Operation" of the three Northern Alliances, which began on October 27 in northern Shan State. It was so intense that they were able to attack and capture military council camps and cities.

After this operation, there were town capture battles all over the country, and Shan State, Kayah State Chin State Rakhine state The military council missed more than 20 cities in Sagaing and Bago.

Nam Kham, Northern Shan State Moan Ko, including Chinni and Chin Shwe Hao, Kwon Long Pansai (Krukot), Cities such as Khon Khoo and Pham Shop, Namslak areas are controlled by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). It was taken over by three twin alliances, the Taang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Rakhine Army (AA).

Ri Jo Dar from Chin State, Vaibula, Sur Khoo, nose Rezoa Lain P, The towns of Paquiwanu have been seized by the Chin regional defense forces, and Khambu, Sagaing, The towns of Kolin and Shwe Pyayye have been taken over by local defense forces under the National Unity Government (NUG). In addition, the Karenni Army (KA) and the Karenni National Defense Force (KNDF) jointly controlled the towns of Nyam Maegok in Kayah State and Mobre in the southern part of Shan State.

U Than Soe Naing, a political analyst, believes that a political change may appear in the coming months from these city-occupation battles.

"The army of the military council under the attack all over the country is not strong enough, Morale is declining. These leaders no longer have the desire to protect Nay Pyi Taw, and they often surrender after fighting hard. I estimate that changes can happen in a matter of months. Of course, Nay Pyi Taw, the last base of the Military Council, will also be lost under the Spring Revolution.

The military council troops used air, air, and force to regain control of the cities that had been lost from various regions. The army is aggressively attacking.

According to a report released on December 8 by the Myanmar Institute for Strategy and Policy Studies (ISP-Myanmar), a research organization, 67 percent of the country's territory is under fighting. According to the latest news, out of the 330 townships, 261 townships are fighting between the military council troops and armed groups rebelling against the military dictator. ISP-Myanmar has analyzed that the areas under the control of the military council are going to shrink even more.

"The Burmese army may gradually collapse. Or moderate leaders in the military see potential to take back power."

Arakan politician U Pe Than considers that the military council may gradually collapse due to the widening of armed conflicts.

"The areas on the side of the revolutionary forces, There are camps, cities, and storage. The military council can't even go on the defensive, let alone go on the offensive. On the military council's side, the camps fell, White flag prisons and loyalty to the military failed. The Burmese army may gradually collapse. Or moderate leaders in the military see potential to take back power"

Dr. Sai Kyi Zin Soe, a political analyst, said that the opposition forces could get the results they want from these battles. He said that if there is no understanding, there is a possibility of disintegration among the opposition parties.

" If we look at the two results that can come out, the first is the connection between them politically when the war is like this. understanding Trust needs to be built at the same time. If that could be built, they found that it had arrived at some point. If they adjust, we can negotiate a result that suits everyone, depending on the military strength of your superiors. The next possible thing is that kind of political understanding between each other. If consensus and trust cannot be built, when the topic of negotiation comes up, suspicions will grow among each other, and those who are fighting the common enemy together, what is he between them? Doubts about what I am may grow and they may become divided among themselves."

But one challenge is As the military conflict drags on, civilians will suffer more and the demand for weapons and ammunition for the ethnic armed groups and PDFs may increase, military analysts say.

A former military officer, political, Dr. Aung Myo, a military analyst, said that he will face losses at the end of this operation due to the problem of weapons and ammunition.

"The long-term prospect is the cost of ammunition and food bullets, if a war is waged on such a large scale. weapons It is not easy to meet all the difficulties. Everything has slowed down. Even if it's a country level, it's not an easy matter, so we went and saw that they couldn't fulfill this level.

David Scott Mathieson, a Myanmar affairs analyst based in Thailand, is more concerned with which groups are fighting in which areas than following the numbers of which groups have captured which cities. Are you really in control? We consider that it is necessary to carefully examine how to go forward.

"Ethnic armed groups have been in the form of protecting and protecting areas with local people who support them as controlled areas. It was years before the military seized power in 2021. From the KNU to the later Rakhine Army (AA) and the Karenni Army, everything was like this. Now, in Operation 1027, as far as I can hear what the leaders of the ethnic armed groups and those who have the opportunity to talk to have said, they launched simultaneous offensive attacks against the military council in their respective areas. He said that it is to incite and encourage similar offensive attacks to happen throughout Myanmar. I don't think they will try to invade central Myanmar. My opinion is that either AA or MNDAA or Yangon Mandalay It is unlikely that they will be able to capture Nay Pyi Taw. If the military council is going to collapse completely, the revolutionary forces led by the NUG will march and seize Nay Pyi Taw. I don't think this is a realistic situation right now."

The Chairman of the Military Council himself admittedthat he lost many controlled areas and military bases in the last two months. Major-General Min Aung Hlaing said at a military council meeting held on November 29 that the ethnic armed forces have superiority in technology and manpower during the operation in northern Shan State.

Until December 11th, the Military Council Army had around two hundred camps in northern Shan State. 46 military bases in Rakhine State; The ISP announced that nearly 40 military camps in Chin State and Sagaing Division and at least 15 military camps in Kayah State had to be abandoned.

China-based military analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zao considers that the Military Council, which has been firmly built for many years, is unlikely to collapse immediately, but in the end, the people will gain democracy.

"The military dictatorship will surely fall. But is this fast? Whether it slows down depends on both the revolutionary groups fighting and the people. It depends on how much we can persevere. So, if we continue to increase by all means, we have to increase. The army can't even speak as loudly as before. The military side is very weak."

On the other hand, due to the intensification of this armed conflict, hundreds of thousands of refugees have been forced to flee their homes.

After the 1027 operation, Lashio in northern Shan State. Thinni, Kwon Long Chin Shwe Ha, Those helping refugees said that there are nearly 100,000 people who have fled their homes from 12 townships, including Lauk Kai.

Among those fleeing is the family of Daw Long Mee, who lives in Namhu village on the Lashio-Sinni road. The family arrived at the Christian Orphanage in Lashio on November 7th as heavy weapons were exploding near the village.

Daw Longummy, a resident of Namhu village on the Lashio-Sinni road, said she does not want anyone to face such a war.

"We are also afraid to face this kind of battle. I am very worried about old people and children. That's why I ran here. As far as we can see, civilians are affected. Both in the agricultural sector and in the livestock sector. It's quite uncomfortable. There is quite a lot of damage. In some villages, the crops that had already been planted were not harvested, and the pigs were sent away in the same way. In that case, the family's economic situation is quite difficult. Not everyone wants to face war. I don't want to be forced to. I think we will be done in a month or two more or less. But we don't know how to move forward.

He said that it would be difficult for the family to support themselves if the war lasted for a long time.

The expanded Operation 1027 arrived in Rakhine State on November 13th, and as the military council army and the AA clashed, people were forced to flee their homes.

Residents of Nyaung Chaung Village in the southern part of Buthidaung Township also had to flee their homes because the Military Council troops were firing heavy weapons near the village.

Daw Mya Than Win, a 53-year-old from Nyaung Cheung village, said that they had to flee because of the military council. That's why he said he wants to see the Military Council leave Rakhine State.

Daw Mya Than Win, a war-torn refugee from Buthidaung Township's Nyoung Cheong Village.

"What do you want to say? They (military council) don't like it." I want them out of this land first. It's been a long time since our lives have become a frog, and that's why we're here because of them. Living in slavery. For the lives of the people of Rakhine who have to pay with our lives, we are saddened too much. That's why we want them out of here as soon as possible."

Similarly, Kayah State Chin State In other provinces, including Kachin State and Sagaing Province, the number of war refugees who have fled their homes is increasing.

According to the statistics of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), since the beginning of the 1027 operation until now, more than six and a half hundred thousand (666,000) civilians have been displaced from their homes. .

According to a UNOCHA report, 363 civilians, including children and women, have been killed and at least 461 have been injured in the ongoing fighting in Myanmar.

SEAPAC encourages ASEAN's firmness in building anti-corruption political commitment

Jakarta - President of South-East Asia Parliamentarians against Corruption (SEAPAC) Fadli Zon encourages ASEAN's firmness in building political commitment regarding anti-corruption.

“The anti-corruption policy is found in the ASEAN Convention Against Trafficking in Persons. Therefore, Post-2025 ASEAN policy must be more firm on anti-corruption issues. "Including creating an equal arena for parliament and the executive in ASEAN," he said in a written statement in Jakarta, Friday.

Fadli made this assertion when speaking as one of the panelists at the 10th Forum of Parliamentarians, as a special activity at the 10th Conference of the State Parties to UNCAC, Atlanta, USA, 11-15 December 2023.

He highlighted that ASEAN has only a few regional policy references related to anti-corruption. According to him, the blueprint for the ASEAN political and security community has included anti-corruption issues as one of the elements, however, there are relatively few follow-up statements or policies.

Fadli, who is also Chair of the DPR RI Inter-Parliamentary Cooperation Agency (BKSAP), emphasized that parliamentary involvement is very important. in supporting the effective implementation of various UN Convention against Corruption (UNCAC) regulations. Parliament not only functions to ratify UNCAC, but also to prepare various pieces of legislation related to UNCAC, regular supervision regarding the implementation of UNCAC to identify shortcomings in anti-corruption policies, and support budget availability to implement various anti-corruption programs.

"Parliamentary work doesn't just stop with the ratification of UNCAC, it only starts after that," he said.

In fact, he said, corruption is still high even though UNCAC has been running for 20 years. This portrait can be seen from the results of the Corruption Perception Index (IPK) 2022. In ASEAN, only one country out of the previous three countries in 2020 was recorded as having a score above 50. Therefore, it is handled with a whole of society approach, including involving parliament is a must.

The results of the SEAPAC Short Study found several examples of legislative needs, such as the need for five countries in Southeast Asia to criminalize bribery to foreign public officials and international organizations. Two countries need to adopt or amend the criminalization of obstruction of justice.

"At least four countries requested UNODC assistance for technical support related to drafting legislation, sample laws, legislative suggestions, all of which are part of parliament's work," he said.

He also suggested two things, namely building a domestic mechanism for regular reviews of UNCAC and encouraging the Conference of the State Parties (CoSP) to have a clear policy in involving parliament members in the UNCAC review mechanism.