Rabat - The conclusions of a newly issued academic report confirmed that Morocco and Algeria are in a geopolitical and diplomatic impasse with dire consequences for the economies of the two countries and the stability of the Maghreb region. This is explained by the increase in military spending, as Algeria ranks third in this field at the African level after Egypt and Nigeria, while Morocco ranks fourth.
And the report bearing the name “Atlas” went on to say that, taking into account the tense relations and factors threatening stability on both sides, as well as the competition between the two countries over the center of regional power, the outbreak of a conventional war is today one of the most disastrous scenarios, which will have negative effects on Morocco’s ambition. to become a regional power.
The report team expects that Morocco will seek the help of its main allies, especially the United States, Israel and the UAE, if it finds itself pushed, unwillingly, to war with Algeria.
The report, of which Al-Quds Al-Arabi received a copy, was issued in French by the “School of Economic War” in Rabat, entitled “Morocco, the Regional Power: Challenges, Key Success Factors, and Strategic Options for 2040”; He pointed out that the “war scenario with Algeria” pushes Morocco to strengthen and modernize its military apparatus in order to protect its attractiveness and strategic projects.
This is evident in the continuous increase in the general budget for national defense, which increased from 35.1 billion Moroccan dirhams ($3,457,136,241) in 2019 to 45.4 billion dirhams ($4,471,623,514) in 2020 and 47.4 billion dirhams ($4,668,611,334) in 2020. 2021, to settle at 45.1 billion dirhams ($4,442,075,341) in 2022.
The report indicated that in the event that Algeria provokes a war with Morocco, the latter, despite its military investments and the support that its allies can provide, especially the United States, Israel and the UAE in particular, risks losing years of progress in terms of infrastructure and strategic projects (the port of Tangiers). Mediterranean, airports, highways...) and will find it difficult to recover to realize the ambition to become a regional power.
Morocco will also face exorbitant military spending, which may exacerbate the budget deficit, and lead to resorting to public debt to deal with the public deficit, and in light of the weakness of public resources, Morocco will resort to indebtedness. Thus, the (unsustainable) public deficit and public debt will mortgage the future of future generations, according to the expectations of the aforementioned report, which added to that the risks associated with violent extremism and terrorism, as Morocco plays a pivotal role in combating terrorism.
The report's research team added that Algeria, for its part, can count on the help of Russia (arms purchase) and Iran, but it will be in a bad position towards the international community. The consequences will also be dire for the population, and the need for emigration will be more acute than ever, especially towards the countries of Europe.
And he recorded that Morocco ranks 55th out of 140 countries in the world, according to Global Firepower data for the year 2022, and it is also the fourth African military power after Egypt, Algeria and Nigeria. He stated that Algeria allocates much more investments in terms of military spending than Morocco: $90 billion between 2010 and 2020 for Algeria, while Morocco allocated $35.6 billion during the same period.
He explained that the conflict over the Sahara is one of the main reasons for the “arms race,” although Algeria explains this by reasons related to the conflicts in the Sahel region.
“Historical resentment and regional rivalries,” that is the main feature of relations between the two neighboring countries in the Maghreb, according to the analysis of the research team, which indicates that the roots of tensions between Morocco and Algeria are due to several factors: history through the position on the Sahara issue, then immediately after the declaration of Algeria ’s independence Morocco claimed the Eastern Sahara in 1963. Hence, the first military confrontations called the “Sand War” marked the beginning of an open war on all fronts: political, diplomatic, economic, and military (guerrilla warfare).
Several events followed that changed the relations between the two countries, specifically the “Green March” launched by the late Moroccan King Hassan II, who was able to mobilize more than 350,000 Moroccan citizens in a peaceful march, which resulted in a diplomatic rupture between Rabat and its eastern neighbor, especially after the support it received. It includes the “Polisario” front from Algeria and Libya.
The establishment of the “Arab Maghreb Union” in 1989 raised hopes for rapprochement between the two countries, but this union, consisting of Algeria, Morocco, Libya, Tunisia and Mauritania, was unable to achieve the expected goals of consolidating fraternal relations between the member states and their peoples and achieving progress and prosperity for their societies.
Relations between the two countries deteriorated in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Marrakech in 1994. Morocco decided to expel Algerian citizens who did not have a residence permit and impose visas to enter its territory. In response, Algeria closed its border with Morocco.
A lot of water ran under the bridge, and the United States’ recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara during the last days of President Donald Trump’s term was a “victory” for Rabat. This American recognition was conditional on the normalization of relations between Morocco and Israel in the form of the “Abraham Accords” signed on January 22. December 1, 2020.
Algeria sees this declaration and this alliance between Tel Aviv, Washington and Rabat as a destabilizing strategy directed against it.
After months of escalating tensions between these two Maghreb countries, which have difficult traditional relations, Algeria decided in August 2021 to sever diplomatic relations with the Kingdom of Morocco, accusing its neighbor of “hostile acts” towards it. This “unilateral” decision, which Rabat denounced as “unjustified,” is evidence of the deterioration of relations. For its part, Algeria accused Morocco of maneuvering to destabilize it, claiming that it uses drug money to attack it, that it sets fires and supports the secession of “tribes” and so on.
Economically, despite the huge potential in terms of bilateral trade, there is currently no possibility to develop economic cooperation, given the ambiguous relations between the two conflicting neighbors and the closure of land, sea and air borders.
On the other hand, it is worth recalling the main European-Maghreb gas pipeline in which Spain, Morocco, Algeria and Portugal participated to ensure the supply of natural gas to the Iberian Peninsula, and thus to Europe.
The report considered that Algeria's decision to close the gas pipeline and abort the regional cooperation project highlights the energy crisis in Morocco and Europe in a geopolitical and geo-economic context fueled by the current war in Ukraine.
Financial situation worsens in Sudan amid tension with the United Nations : Khartoum
The five million inhabitants of Khartoum count their last banknotes in a country with an almost non-existent banking system, even before the outbreak of the conflict between the army of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane and the paramilitaries of the Support Forces fast (FSR).
Since the start of the violence on April 15, banks have lowered their curtains, and online applications cease to function with each power or Internet cut. The cash envelopes, which used to arrive with travelers, have not come since the airport closed. Money from the diaspora had already stopped arriving since the beginning of the conflict, with banking and financial establishments being centralized in Khartoum.
Abu Dharr Hasan, an employee of a money transfer office, said: “A large number of people fled Khartoum for Madani due to the war, and all Western Union services were suspended for 21 days. Then they adopted a policy of safe areas, that is, cities where there was no unrest and where there was no conflict, so people began to withdraw from money and flee, everyone is aware of the situation in the country."
CHARGES
General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane for his part accused the UN envoy Volker Perthes of having a share of responsibility in the war which broke out six weeks ago with the paramilitaries and left more than 1,800 dead.
In a letter addressed to the UN, General Burhane accuses Volker Perthes of having " concealed" the explosive situation in Khartoum in his reports to the United Nations. Without these " lies", General Mohamed Hamdane Daglo (boss of the paramilitaries) would not have launched his military operations ".
United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres said he was "shocked" , expressing "his full confidence" in his envoy. The US State Department also expressed its " resolute support " and "confidence" in Volker Perthes and expressed its "concern" about the letter addressed to the United Nations.
Nigeria: President Muhammadu Buhari defends his highly contested record
Former Nigerian President Buhari, during his last televised speech
Nigeria's outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari on Sunday defended his much-contested record, saying he left Nigeria in a "better" state than when he came to power in 2015.
Buhari wanted to be reassuring on television as Africa's most populous country faces unprecedented economic and security crises.
I am happy that we have begun Nigeria's renaissance by taking the first essential steps towards achieving it. I am confident that the new administration will accelerate the pace of this work for Nigeria to fulfill its destiny and become a great nation._ I am confident that I leave office with a better Nigeria in 2023 than in 2015, ” he said.
On Monday, Buhari will give way to Bola Ahmed Tinubu, of the ruling party, whose election last February is contested by the opposition, which denounces massive fraud.