The New York Times: Earthquake diplomacy has brought Assad back into the limelight. He is still an outcast and his internal problems are more difficult

The New York Times published a report in which it said that “Syrian President” Bashar al-Assad is using disaster diplomacy in order to take a step forward to return to the world stage again. "A tragedy for the Syrians is a gain for Assad, because no one else wants to manage this mess," said an analyst.

In a report prepared by Declan Walsh, he said that a strong earthquake last week catapulted the Syrian dictatorial president into the global spotlight and gave him an opportunity to step up to the world stage through disaster diplomacy. As the number of victims increased from the strongest earthquake to hit the region in a century, Assad, the outcast for bombing and torturing his people, received a flood of messages of condolence, sympathy, and attention from other countries.

 Arab leaders who had shunned him for a decade grabbed the phone and called him, and senior United Nations officials flocked to his office, offering help and taking pictures. Planes loaded with clothes and aid landed from other countries, not only from his Russian and Iranian allies, but also Saudi Arabia, which in the past sent aid and money to the armed opposition that was trying to overthrow him.

The newspaper quoted researcher Emile Hokayem, an analyst on Middle East affairs at the International Institute for Strategic and International Studies in London, as saying, “There is no doubt that this is an important moment for Assad,” and “a tragedy for the Syrians is a gain for Assad because no one wants to manage this chaos.”

Last week, al-Assad toured the affected areas, finding an opportunity, even for once, to blame nature for the destruction that befell the Syrian cities and towns, not the war, and at the same time accuse the West of politicizing the crisis.

The earthquake reinforced the slow efforts of a number of Arab countries that are working to get Assad out of his isolation. The UAE, which is leading these efforts, sent its foreign minister to Damascus to meet Assad for the second time this year. On Wednesday, the UAE increased its aid to those affected by the disaster to $100 million. In return, Assad, known for his stubbornness, responded to international outreach and allowed the United Nations to use two crossings on the border with Turkey to transport foodstuffs to opposition-held areas for the first time in 12 years.

However, not much has changed in Assad's situation, especially the US and European sanctions for his use of chemical weapons against his own people, the forced displacement of residents from opposition areas, and other violations.

However, earthquakes and natural disasters can be dangerous for political systems. An earthquake in Mexico in 1986 led to a change in the political system due to the government's weak response, as well as in Turkey in 1999, which led to the rise of the strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

 And if you do nothing, the earthquake disaster of February 6th exposed the pathetic situation of Syria under Assad. After a decade of war, the regime was able to regain most of the areas from the opposition, thanks to the ruthless aerial bombardment of the Russians, as the guns fell silent and the major battles ended. However, Assad came out bankrupt from the war and controlled a fragmented country and ruled part of it.

There are large areas in the north and north-east of the country under the control of Kurdish and Islamic armed groups and groups affiliated with Turkey, and there are still 900 American soldiers in Syria, where they pursue the remnants of the Islamic State, whose leader was killed in Syria in February last year, and his successor followed him less than nine months later. .

The years of war affected the Syrian economy, which became exhausted and pushed the Syrians to flee to other Arab countries or Turkey and Europe, and those who remained in the country were exhausted by hunger and fatigue. In the days following the earthly catastrophe, Assad seemed to be dancing an empty war dance. While international support poured in for Turkey, only a small part of it reached Syria, and came from Iran and Russia, revealing the limitations of the alliance that Assad used to protect himself from the rest of the world. Darine Khalifeh of the International Crisis Group in Brussels commented that the idea of ​​Iran and Russia rushing to help is “fading”, as they only come when there is a battle and “not when the Syrians are suffering”.

 Idlib, which is controlled by the opposition, was affected by the earthquake, which reached 7.8 degrees on the Richter scale, and the death toll reached 5,500, according to United Nations figures, while the death toll in Turkey exceeded 36,000. Even in regime areas, there is an acute shortage of medicine and food, as well as rescue equipment such as excavators, as rescuers resorted to hand tools and their own hands to search for survivors.

Abd al-Qadir al-Dawalibi, from Aleppo province, appealed to the United States to lift the sanctions so that the government could import the necessary equipment. “Every day a building collapses, and every day people become homeless.” Aleppo was already vulnerable to bombardment even before the earthquake, and the authorities announced that they would demolish 1,400 buildings due to their weak foundations. Rescue teams could only reach 5% of the affected areas in the days following the earthquake, due to a lack of human resources and equipment.

The newspaper says that the urgent need is in the interest of Assad, and earthquake diplomacy facilitates matters and is less costly for a number of countries to talk to him, as Hokayem says. For the UAE, trying to get Assad out of his isolation is part of a contradictory foreign policy that also includes normalization with Israel. Algeria is another country that played a role in trying to bring Assad back into the Arab fold. But the most remarkable scene came from Aleppo this week, where the first aid planes from Saudi Arabia landed, the first in decades. This has angered the Syrians, who want to punish Assad for his misdeeds.

 However, nothing has changed with regard to Syria on the part of America and Europe, and Washington has temporarily eased the sanctions to allow the entry of money and aid to the affected areas, and all this will not change Syria's status as a pariah state, according to Khalifa. Sympathy for Syria remains an expression of efforts trying to reduce the influence of Iran and Turkey in Syria, or a response to international pressure. It is mostly an expression of recognition of the political reality and that Assad's grip on power will not loosen anytime soon. “No one wants to overthrow Assad anymore,” said Aron Lund, an expert on Syria at the American Century Foundation. “They are trying to look at the conditions for his integration and his survival.”

Welch noticed that the earthquake might bring him benefits, especially in the relationship with Turkey. President Erdogan expressed his desire to dialogue with the Damascus regime and suggested the possibility of holding a meeting. He now faces a massive reconstruction process and tough elections in mid-May, which means his rapprochement with Damascus will infuriate Syrians.

Opening the doors for Assad with the outside does not mean the end of the crisis, as it may lead to internal crises stemming from the economic conditions. The earthquake struck Aleppo, in which his forces fought bloody confrontations with the opposition before their victory over them in 2016, as well as Latakia on the Mediterranean. And only last summer, Assad toured Aleppo with his children, vowing to rebuild it. Then, last week, he returned to it with his wife, visited the wounded, shook hands with the Russian rescuers, and also visited Latakia. The disaster left 5.3 million people displaced, and Assad is facing internal anger due to the weak response to the crisis and fears that aid will be diverted to his regions through corruption.