The Russian-Ukrainian war has gone through several stages since its outbreak a year ago, some of which constituted an important turning point in its course, but despite that, neither side was able to resolve the battle in its favour.
A year after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, no party has decided the situation in its favor, and the region has entered into a war of attrition that does not know its end.
Moscow, which is accustomed to lightning wars in both Georgia and Crimea, is waging a war of attrition in Ukraine and was forced to reduce its ambitions in the country.
While Ukraine, supported by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), was unable to recover all of its lands, but it achieved some victories thanks to the qualitative weapons it obtained.
During this period, the war went through several stages that were turning points in the course of the battles, and in each stage events and weapons emerged that contributed to turning the course of the war without settling it for either side.
The first stage: the all-out Russian advance
Russia tried to hide its intention to launch a comprehensive military operation against Ukraine, despite the suspicions surrounding it after carrying out military maneuvers with Belarus near Ukraine's northern borders.
On February 24, 2022, the Russian army launched an all-out attack on Ukraine from the north, east and south, and within weeks managed to overrun several cities and towns.
During this stage, the Russian army controlled about 20% of Ukraine's area, including the northern and eastern suburbs of the capital, Kiev, the decommissioned Chernobyl nuclear power plant, and the Zaporizhya nuclear power plant, the largest of its kind in Europe.
It also invaded most parts of Kherson province in the south, including the capital of the province of the same name, bordering the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow annexed by force in 2014.
By the spring of 2022, the Russian forces in Ukraine were forming an arc from north to south that was about to close its jaws on Kiev.
This arc extended from the suburbs of Kiev and Chernihiv province in the north, then the provinces of Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk in the east, to Zaporizhia and Kherson in the south.
Kiev was fighting a battle for survival after losing its fleet in the Black Sea, neutralizing most of its air force, and destroying most of the air bases, especially in the eastern half of the Dnipro River, which divides the country into two halves.
The second stage: shrinking Russian ambitions
The length of the battle front and its extension over hundreds of kilometers caused logistical problems for the Russian army, as several military units found a shortage of supplies of ammunition, fuel and supplies, which made it difficult for them to advance, but rather made them an easy target for the Ukrainian forces.
The wounds of the Russian army deepened its entry into urban warfare, especially in the suburbs of Kiev and Kharkiv, which witnessed fierce resistance from the Ukrainian forces, which caused a large number of Russian casualties and destroyed their vehicles.
The Turkish Bayraktar drones, of which Kiev acquired a number, also played a decisive role in stopping the advance of Russian forces towards Ukrainian cities, and even hitting their rear supply lines.
Providing the Ukrainian army with American Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-helicopter missiles helped inflict several defeats on the Russian army, especially in urban warfare.
In the face of this difficult situation that the Russian forces faced in the field, they found it difficult to swallow a country the size of Ukraine supported by NATO, which prompted them to change their war tactics, reduce the size of their targets, to reduce human and material losses among their forces, and address weaknesses, especially those related to planning. and supplies.
By the end of March 2022, and following the Istanbul negotiations, the Russian forces began withdrawing from the suburbs of Kiev and from the northeastern regions of Ukraine, and focused their war effort on the eastern and southern regions, which have a majority population of Russian origins.
The third stage: the epic of Mariupol
After more than two months of fierce fighting and heavy bombardment, the Russian army, with the support of Chechen units led by Ramzan Kadyrov, managed to take control of the strategic city of Mariupol overlooking the Sea of Azov.
Both sides are proud of this battle, as the Ukrainians refer to the heroic resistance of a few soldiers, and their steadfastness in the face of fierce bombardment that flattened the city and killed thousands of besieged civilians.
While the Russians believe that they have been able to connect their areas in the Donbass region with Kherson Province and the Crimean Peninsula, after they were separate enclaves, in addition to turning the Sea of Azov into a Russian lake.
Mariupol was the command center for the Ukrainian army in its operations against the pro-Russian rebels of Donbass.
It is also the main stronghold of the nationalist Azov Battalion, which Russia considers a terrorist organization and describes its members as neo-Nazis.
As the Russian forces managed to capture many of its members after they surrendered after being besieged for long days in the “Azov Steel” steel factory in the city.
Phase Four: Kharkiv Blitzkrieg
The withdrawal of the Russian forces from the vicinity of Kiev encouraged the Ukrainian forces gathered in the capital to move towards the Kharkiv province, whose center witnessed street warfare, forcing them to withdraw early from the city of the same name, but they took control of dozens of towns in the province and did not withdraw from them.
In the first half of September 2022, Ukrainian forces launched a lightning attack on Russian forces in Kharkiv Province, and managed to recover about 3 thousand square kilometers of land, and liberated strategic villages and towns, led by the city of Izium.
The American Himars missiles, which Ukraine acquired from Washington in June 2022, played a decisive role in ending the stalemate on the front lines during the summer.
The range of HIMARS missiles ranges between 60 and 80 km, while the range of Russian tanks and missile launchers does not exceed 20-40 km, which gave the Ukrainian forces an advantage in battles, and an advantage in striking the Russian rear bases and supply lines, which led to a rapid fall in the towns and cities of the province.
In the face of these military defeats, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded with a political move, when he annexed four Ukrainian provinces (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson) to the Russian Federation after a popular referendum on September 30, which was not recognized by the United Nations and most countries in the world.
Fifth stage: withdrawal from Kherson
After the victories of the Ukrainian army on the eastern front, Kharkiv, it transferred its offensive weight to the southern front in Kherson Province, and the Himars missiles put heavy pressure on the Russian forces in the region.
HIMARS missiles targeted the supply lines of the advancing Russian forces in Kherson, on the northern bank of the Dnipro River, which put them in danger of encirclement and siege from the Ukrainian forces in the north and the river from the south, with the possibility of running out of ammunition and stopping supplies, especially with the approach of winter and snow.
On this basis, Moscow decided to withdraw from the strategic city of Kherson, in October, even though the city is the only capital of a province it has controlled since February 24, 2022.
It was a demoralizing decision for the Russian army, but it was also necessary as part of a new plan aimed at fortifying in impregnable natural sites behind the Dnipro River, and taking a defensive position to deplete the capabilities of the Ukrainian army and its allies during the harsh winter, in preparation for an expected attack in the spring.
On the other hand, the Russian army intensified its attacks with hypersonic missiles of the type Kinjal (Dagger), and Iranian drones of the type “Shahid”, which are cheap, which caused heavy losses in the Ukrainian infrastructure, especially in power stations, and depleted the stock of its expensive anti-aircraft missiles.
On the other hand, Russia received a blow to its pride when parts of the Crimean Bridge linking the Russian mainland and the Crimean peninsula were blown up on October 8, 2022.
The sixth stage: Bakhmut and preparation for the spring battles
Since the beginning of winter, no strategic shifts have taken place on the battlefield, with the exception of the incinerator taking place in the city of Bakhmut and its environs, in which the two sides are engaged in bone-breaking battles, which some have likened to a “meat grinder,” with the depletion of ammunition stocks, especially on the Ukrainian side, according to observers.
Although Bakhmut, located in Donetsk Province, is not of strategic importance to Kherson, Kharkiv, or even Mariupol, both sides are fighting desperately to control it, which has caused a war of attrition for them.
In recent weeks, Wagner security units managed to control the city of Solidar, which is adjacent to Bakhmut, and Russian forces entered some of the latter's neighborhoods, which constituted a moral victory for the Russians.
But the most important thing is the preparation of the two sides for the spring battle, especially the Ukrainian side, which received promises to provide it with American Abrams attack tanks, German Leopards and British Challenger, in addition to American Patriot anti-aircraft missiles.
This highlights Ukraine's readiness, with Western support, to launch a massive offensive in the spring to regain territory under the control of the Russian army.
While Russia is expected to introduce a new arsenal of weapons that have not yet entered the war except experimentally, which will expand the scope of the fighting.