Although Brexit has been dominating political discourse in the UK, leading British politicians are now reluctant to even discuss it.
-Jonathan Fenton Harvey
Although Brexit has been dominating political discourse in the UK, leading British politicians are now reluctant to even discuss it. Meanwhile, a growing number of Britons are rethinking the costs of Brexit, including those who voted to leave or did not.
For the many people who have been denied hospital treatment amid nationwide strikes in recent months, exacerbated by cost-of-living pressures, Britain can seem like a relief in the post-Brexit era.
Indeed, even those who support Brexit are now feeling "Bregret", as it is called in the British newspapers, remorse. A recent YouGov poll showed that most Britons feel it was wrong to leave the European Union, while one in five Brexiteers regret their decision.
Moreover, 65 percent of Britons said they would support another referendum on joining the bloc, while even fewer said they would support one immediately, suggesting that discussions about Britain's future within the EU may resurface. If Brexit continues to fail to achieve its goals, broad support for it may eventually fade.
The deterioration of the internal situation
While the Vote Leave pledge was to spend £350m ($400m) a week on the healthcare system, nothing materialized. Not only is this due to the Conservative Party's neglect of public services, especially the healthcare system, the staff of carers has also been in severe shortage since Brexit.
According to research by the London School of Economics, the increased bureaucracy and formalities on UK-EU trade since Brexit have added £210 to each household's food bill. The deterioration in living standards is also an indirect effect on the stagnant GDP, which is estimated to be 5.5 percent lower by the second quarter of 2022 if Britain does not leave the European Union, with a loss of £33 billion ($40 billion). ).
It's not just costs that worry people. The British Chambers of Commerce said that Britain's exit from the European Union did not turn out as desired, after its researchers found that 77 percent of companies surveyed said that leaving the European Union did not help their business grow, while the majority struggled. small to adapt to new trade regulations.
Even farmers, who have been described as one of the biggest winners of Brexit, have been unhappy with new trade deals, particularly with Australia, because they fear lamb and beef prices will fall more than Australian produce.
It is true that people around the world are facing similar problems and a deterioration in living standards due to the Covid pandemic and the impact of the war in Ukraine on energy and basic foodstuffs, but the situation of the United Kingdom has been exacerbated by Brexit, as it is expected to have the worst economic downturn in the group Seven in 2023.
Some have suggested that the UK's rapid introduction of the Covid-19 vaccine was a positive outcome of leaving the EU, however it is important to note that while the EU has tried to encourage member states to follow its vaccine programme, this was not legally binding. Indeed, Britain still enjoyed many freedoms within the bloc, such as being outside the Schengen area and retaining the pound sterling.
So what is the purpose of all this? While there are many reasons behind Brexit - such as concerns about immigration and opposition to globalization - the narrow spirit on sovereignty promoted by Boris Johnson's now-resigned government is also a major factor.
The British public was told that one of the advantages of Brexit was that a sovereign Britain would be free to control its own trade deals, and that we could easily substitute strong economies in the Commonwealth and other fast-growing economies for trade with the EU. It played on other ideas, such as promoting the Anglosphere to rival the European Union.
Pitfalls of "Global Britain"
While all of this sounds ambitious, it has not been practical in the real world. So far the UK has signed a total of three new trade agreements, with Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. Minister Michael Gove has wrongly claimed that the UK has signed 70 new agreements worth £800 billion ($968 billion). These were, in fact, ongoing contracts or It has been reconfirmed since the UK is in the European Union and therefore does not add additional value to the UK economy.
The Conservative government has often overestimated London's attractiveness and stalled trade talks with India, although the October 2022 deadline showed that. While India is an attractive target, having recently overtaken the UK as the world's fifth-largest economy, ministers in New Delhi might be thinking: "What are we going to get from these trade talks?"
In fact, Britain may realize that trade with India on its own terms and those of other nations is no guarantee. Britain is also seeking other trade deals with Canada, the Gulf, and the United States that will not offer anything substantially new or replace trade with the European Union.
Amid what some UK commentators have described as "imperial nostalgia", many ministers seem oblivious that Britain is, in fact, neither a superpower nor an empire.
Other symbolic moves indicate Britain's global ambitions. Along with Johnson's maneuver to play a major role in providing military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine amid its war with Russia - while increasing its defense budget at the same time - goals such as Britain becoming a "green science and energy superpower" were promoted.
However, along with other visions such as empowering the Commonwealth, all of these plans need money. If the British economy continues to stagnate and domestic pressure for economic reforms increases, London may have to rethink its ambitious outlook.
Indeed, the 2021 Integrated Review, which endorsed the “Global Britain” slogan and highlighted the Indo-Pacific as a crucial target for trade, does not take into account the economic shocks of the past year caused by the war in Ukraine.
to move on
As Britain endures the challenges of post-Brexit, even citizens across Europe seem to be becoming more in favor of remaining in the EU, according to recent opinion polls. While issues such as the Ukraine war may also play a role in uniting Europeans, witnessing the ravages of Brexit has led people to want to stay in the bloc. Even traditionally Eurosceptic parties such as Italy's recently elected government have focused the debate on reforming the European Union rather than leaving it.
While the current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has shown more pragmatism towards some EU countries, such as France, MPs from all parties have opposed the government's plans to scrap remaining EU laws in Britain.
And with the collapse of the Conservative Party last year, Keir Starmer of the Labor Party called for closer trade relations with the European Union, amid speculation that he might consider trying to reassess London's relations with Brussels if his party came to power.
These new economic and security uncertainties, which are not in line with Britain's initial post-Brexit ambitions, may prompt the UK to look more towards Europe and, it should be said, reduce its maneuvers in the Indo-Pacific.
Indeed, there have been suggestions that the UK might emulate other European models even if it does not join the bloc like Norway or Switzerland.
The British public is increasingly showing signs of remorse, a trend that is likely to continue as the crises arising from Brexit deepen, possibly prompting British politicians to have honest discussions about re-evaluating Britain's relations with the bloc.