Climate extremes are driving hundreds of millions of people to leave their countries for cooler and less extreme regions. The next three decades are expected to witness the migration of approximately 1.5 billion people due to extreme environmental factors to places near the poles.
With the increase in hurricanes, floods and fires due to rising temperatures and droughts, environmental migration of various types and causes has emerged, and the question of what to do about the rapid increase in the number of displaced people has become greater and more urgent in conjunction with the doubling of the number of migrants worldwide during the past decade.
While the International Organization for Migration of the United Nations has estimated that the number of climate migrants will exceed the one and a half billion barrier over the next three decades, the British newspaper " The Guardian " quoted a book titled "The Nomadic Century: How to Survive the Climate", which indicated that rising temperatures in the The world and a rise in the world population to its expected peak in the mid-1960s would increase the number of climate migrants after the 1950s.
Similar to what happened in 1845 when millions of Irish immigrated to the United States due to the deadly famine caused by the spoilage of the potato crop in Ireland, climate change began to show its teeth, ushering in a new type of mass migration that far outnumbered the number of immigrants from wars and conflicts, and even internal migrations from Countryside to city, in big stages. Here is the full story in this report.
Climate immigrants
There is no legal definition of people on the move due to environmental motives yet and no internationally accepted definition. However, in 2007 the International Organization for Migration put forward a broad working definition of environmental migration that describes environmental migrants thus: “Persons or groups of persons who, often for reasons related to sudden or gradual change in the environment adversely affecting their lives or living conditions, are compelled to leave their usual homes, or they choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, either within or outside their country.”
While this is a working IOM definition with an analytical and promotional presentation and has no specific legal value, it has been used in the legally binding Cancun Accords on adaptation to climate change, which have been adopted by states parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. which in turn identified three forms of "climate change-induced" movement: displacement, migration, and planned resettlement. The World Bank has also used this term in forecasting future movements due to the negative effects of climate change.
Returning to the Guardian report, we see that a large number of the population will be forced to migrate due to climate change, not only to the nearest city, but also across continents as well. Those who live in regions with better conditions, especially countries in northern latitudes, will need to absorb millions of migrants, while they adapt to the demands of the climate crisis.
Migration to cold
The world is already seeing twice the number of days when temperatures exceed 50 degrees Celsius than they were 30 years ago, and this level of heat is lethal to humans, and it is also a huge problem for buildings, roads and power plants, which makes the region unlivable.
And while this explosive planetary drama requires a dynamic human response, humans will need to help people move from danger and poverty to safety and comfort, to build a more resilient global society for the benefit of all in the face of climate migration. The planet, on Earth that is quickly becoming ice-free due to global warming. For example, parts of Siberia, the vast Russian region frozen for about half the year, are already seeing temperatures of 30 degrees Celsius for months at a time, according to the Guardian.
And while the tuktoyaktuk is eroding an average of two meters per year, at the current rate, the entire island will be gone by 2050 unless it is mitigated, other North American and Siberian communities could see a similar fate, meaning that wildlife and with it locals are forced to move north towards cooler places. Away from the arctic forest fires.
Most affected countries
In 2018, the World Bank estimated that three regions (Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia) would generate 143 million climate migrants by 2050. In 2017, 68.5 million people were forcibly displaced , more than at any time in human history. While it is difficult to estimate, nearly a third of these have been forced to relocate due to “sudden” weather events, floods, wildfires, droughts and severe storms, the slow events caused by climate change, such as desertification, sea level rise, ocean acidification, air pollution and climate shifts. Rain patterns and biodiversity loss, will exacerbate many humanitarian crises and thus more people will migrate.
Experts believe that some countries are expected to be affected more than others. Bangladesh is expected to become uninhabitable, and more than 13 million Bangladeshis, nearly 10% of the population, are expected to leave the country by 2050.
In the Middle East and North Africa, climatic studies expect the cities of Basra in Iraq and Alexandria in Egypt to sink as a result of rising sea levels and rising temperatures in parts of the Middle East, especially the Gulf, to unprecedented levels that most people cannot tolerate (60-70 degrees Celsius), This will turn the cities of the region into uninhabitable areas and displace hundreds of thousands of people from their homes.