The scenarios for Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia are weak, but possible

The current crisis reflects a miscalculation of the Biden administration

The current energy crisis showed a great miscalculation by the United States of its ability to influence the position of its allies towards oil and gas producers, due to Washington's lack of understanding of the urgent changes in the world and the Gulf region.

Washington - Advisers to the US administration are studying scenarios available to reduce oil prices, which have reached record levels and threaten a serious downturn in the economy of the United States and the world, and among these scenarios is the possibility of arranging a visit by President Joe Biden this spring to Saudi Arabia.

And the American "Axios" website revealed that officials in the Biden administration are putting together a number of options, including giving an opportunity to improve relations with Saudi Arabia and persuading it to increase its oil production.

The site pointed out that discussions about a possible visit by Biden to Riyadh are in their early stages, and that there is a great possibility that it will not happen, as Washington does not want to show any concession in its policies towards the Kingdom, which is the third oil producer in the world and leads the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). .

Officials in the Biden administration are laying out a number of options, including giving an opportunity to improve relations with Saudi Arabia

The explosive energy crisis since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict revealed a great miscalculation of the US administration, which believed that it could control prices through a quick response to its allies from the major oil and gas producers to its demands, but this did not materialize.

Oil prices have jumped to their highest levels since 2008, as they crossed the barrier of 130 dollars a barrel, amid expectations of a greater rise in the absence of indications of an imminent possibility of ending the Russian war in Ukraine, and American statements about the possibility of imposing an embargo on Russian oil, in addition to the lack of reach so far. to an agreement on Iran's nuclear deal.

Over the past weeks, American officials had sought to send messages to the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, about the importance of increasing their oil production, but Riyadh had reservations about this step, stressing its commitment to the “OPEC Plus” agreement, an oil alliance that includes Russia.

The agreement allows for an increase in production by 400,000 barrels per day each month, but it is absolutely insufficient to have any impact on the global oil market. Two sources in “OPEC Plus” said on Monday that the alliance’s policies have nothing to do with the current rise in oil prices, ruling out any possibility of increasing the group’s supplies.

One of the sources stressed, "The problem is that the current market conditions have nothing to do with OPEC's policy, nor with a shortage of supply (production)." "We all know the reasons for the current price," he added. Neither OPEC nor OPEC+ has anything to do with the reasons that push prices to current levels.”

Gulf political circles say that Biden's visit to Riyadh in the hope of persuading it to modify its position and abandon its oil agreement with Russia seems highly unlikely, as Washington still adheres to its hard-line positions towards the Saudi leadership, especially Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Joe Biden

And circles indicate that Biden's advisers are aware that excluding the crown prince during any possible visit to Saudi Arabia will not be a good thing and may be counterproductive, especially since Prince Mohammed is the actual ruler in the Kingdom.

The circles point out that the democratic administration appears to be in an embarrassing situation, and it cannot influence the Kingdom's position with its current style, which includes a lot of condescension and supremacy, and is tempted by what some are promoting about Prince Mohammed, especially in relation to the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Prince Mohammed said, in a lengthy interview with the American newspaper “The Atlantic” published last Thursday and circulated in full by Saudi media close to the government, that he does not care whether Biden “misunderstands” anything about him, including with regard to the Khashoggi assassination case.

"It is up to him (Biden), and it is up to him to think about the interests of the United States, so let him do that," the crown prince said. He continued, "We have a long and historic relationship with the United States, and for us in Saudi Arabia our goal is to preserve and strengthen it. We have political interests, economic interests, security interests, defense interests, commercial interests, and we have many interests, and we have a great opportunity to promote all of these interests, and also we have a great opportunity to reduce them in several areas, and if you ask us in Saudi Arabia, we want to strengthen them in all areas. No one has the right to interfere in our internal affairs, this matter concerns us, the Saudis.”

The website "Axios" said that the positions announced by the Saudi crown prince in the "The Atlantic" magazine do not make it easy for Biden to repair relations between them.

Observers believe that there is a kind of shortcoming in US officials' understanding of the current changes in the world and the Gulf region, which tend to get rid of US restrictions little by little by building alliances and relations with multiple powers, and from a peer-to-peer position.

Observers point out that this shortcoming has brought down Washington and some of its European allies in a miscalculation of the current energy crisis, considering that Washington's statements regarding the study of imposing a Russian oil embargo in light of the current situation are illogical, and may lead to more division within the Western axis.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that his country will continue to rely on energy imports from Russia. "The supply of energy to Europe for heating, for transportation, for electricity and for industry cannot be secured in any other way at the present time," the Social Democratic politician explained on Monday.

Schulz added that the energy received from Russia is of fundamental importance to the daily life of citizens, noting that this is why Europe excluded energy supplies from the sanctions imposed on Russia due to the war on Ukraine.

Observers believe that Biden does not seem enthusiastic until this moment to break the wall of apathy in the relationship with Saudi Arabia, but in the end he may have to do so if the oil crisis continues to escalate, and this will constitute a great gain for Prince Mohammed.

The "Axios" website stated that the Russian attack has clearly affected the alliances in the world, and may force the United States to re-arrange its priorities, noting that officials in the Biden administration visited Venezuela last weekend to meet the government of President Nicolas Maduro.