Return to calm in Guinea-Bissau after hours of uncertainty

I'm fine Alhamdulillah, the situation is under government control. I thank the people of Guinea-Bissau and all the people beyond our country who have been concerned for my government and me. Long live the Republic and may God watch over Guinea-Bissau : these are the first words left by the Twitter account of President Umaro Sissoco Embalo, a little around 8 p.m. on Tuesday, just after a return to calm.

After his tweet, the Bissau-Guinean president addressed the nation from the presidential palace, according to him, the situation is under control, and the coup attempt would have been foiled. Several victims are to be deplored, assures the president. Guinea-Bissau has lived through hours of political uncertainty, plunging the country into concern, after heavy gunfire was heard near the government palace where an extraordinary Council of Ministers was being held.

According to the account of some testimonies collected by the news agencies on the spot, armed men entered at the beginning of the afternoon the complex of the government palace in Bissau, which houses the various ministries on the outskirts of the capital near the airport. The surroundings of the palace were plagued by movements of inhabitants fleeing the premises.

Heavily armed men surrounded the compound, where the president and ministers were believed to be pinned down, with it unclear whether the men were mutineers or forces loyal to power.

Ethiopian Airlines resumes flights with the Boeing 737 MAX

Almost 3 years after the plane crash that killed 157 people, Ethiopian Airlines announced that the company would resume flights with the Boeing 737 Max from Tuesday, February 1.

A crash that had resulted in the grounding of this aircraft around the world. The Ethiopian company had even announced on several occasions that it would be the last airline to resume flights with this aircraft.

But in a statement, the carrier said the move came after "deep re-certification" by the United States, European Union, China and Ethiopia.

Ethiopian Airlines, which had four 737 MAXs at the time of the crash, also provided a list of 35 other airlines currently using the aircraft.

In March 2019, Flight 302 bound for Nairobi, operated by the Ethiopian national carrier, crashed in a field near the capital Addis Ababa, six minutes after takeoff, due to faulty software. The crash victims hailed from more than 30 countries - including many from neighboring Kenya.

The accident occurred a few months after another crash, that of a Lion Air Boeing 737 MAX aircraft in Indonesia in October 2018 (189 dead).

Boeing has admitted its responsibility in the accident and has reached an agreement with the families of the victims, who will be able to take steps to obtain compensation in the American courts.

Mozambique Total's hopes for gas reserves are threatened by armed organizations

In 2010, the largest natural gas reserves in sub-Saharan Africa were discovered in Mozambique, which made this country a place among the top ten exporting countries in the world, but the armed organizations there pose great challenges to major companies and investors.

Global energy giants involved in the race to invest Mozambique's rich natural gas reserves are trying to re-launch projects worth billions, although they have been waiting for nearly a year for an uncertain return to calm after a large-scale attack by terrorist organizations.

On Monday, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Boiani met Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi in Maputo. The two men came to the same conclusion they did months ago: the security situation does not allow the launch of a 16.5 billion euro project in the Indian Ocean.

In the French giant group, the issue is considered sensitive, so the statements are tightly controlled, but a security source confirmed to the French press agency that he monitored movements in the Avongi site, which is still incomplete.

In 2010, Mozambique discovered the largest reserves of natural gas in sub-Saharan Africa, which made this country a place among the top ten exporting countries in the world.

The Muslim-majority province of Cabo Delgado (northeast) has seen three mega projects: Mozambique LNG, a consortium operated by Total Energies, Rovuma LNG, operated by ExxonMobil of the United States, and Coral-Sul FLNG, led by the Italian group ENI.

The sea is less dangerous

In March 2021, a sudden attack on the small port city of Palma caused work to be suspended until further notice on the massive Total project located a few kilometers from the site of the attack.

"Total Energies must return this year if it wants to achieve its new production target in 2026," said Burgess Nahamir, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).

It seems that one of the three projects will succeed. The Italian group Eni, which was counting on gas liquefaction in the middle of the sea, told AFP that it "retains its production target for the second quarter of 2022."

In January, the Coral Sul, the first offshore natural gas liquefaction platform to be sent to the African continent, arrived off the coast of Mozambique with an annual production capacity of 3.4 million tons.

On the security front, the company leading the €6.2 billion project asserts that it is working in close cooperation with the government.

According to experts, Eni's offshore operations involve minimal risk. Nahamir points out that "there are very few attacks at sea. During four years of violence, there was no attack at sea except for one attack targeting fishermen near the coast.

As for the ExxonMobil project, it is at a standstill, as the construction of the facilities, which has an annual capacity of 15.2 million tons, has not started yet, and the US group does not seem to intend to move before the situation improves.

Designed by Maputo

"Maputo is determined to see these projects come true the government needs money," said Alexander Raymakers, an analyst at the British consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft.

The government is looking to reap billions of annual revenues thanks to gas projects, which constitutes unexpected gains for the country, which has a gross domestic product of about 13 billion euros.

For the past six months, the struggling Mozambican army has had the support of no less than 3,000 soldiers from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Rwanda.

Raymakers notes that the arrival of regional forces has allowed Maputo to halt the escalation of violence, but it is unlikely that he will win in the next 12 months.

He explains that the regional forces do not have the means, pointing to limited air support and a small number of helicopters, mostly light infantry.

Terrorists holed up in neighboring Niassa County and staged sporadic attacks that now resemble classic guerrilla tactics. Last January, the non-governmental organization Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project recorded nearly thirty violent acts.

President Nyusi confirms progress in the war against terrorist organizations, but according to observers, the roots of the problem are elsewhere. The province of Cabo Delgado, 2,000 kilometers from Maputo, is among the poorest.