On the regional context of the electricity-for-water agreement with Israel

The Emirati-Jordanian-Israeli electricity-for-water agreement, which was signed in the presence of the Americans in Dubai at the end of last month, bluntly exceeds the foundations of the settlement process in its contemporary context, which was launched through the Madrid Peace Conference three decades ago.

It does not only seek to perpetuate the principle of green economy and clean energy, but also to include Jordan in the Abrahamic normalization agreements. In the context of integrating Israel into the economies of the region and its major regional projects, the matter will remain official, of course, and will not lead to societal normalization in any way, in light of the stubborn, determined and escalating Arab street rejection, and the impossibility of peace, security and stability in the region far from a just, comprehensive and sustainable solution to the Palestinian issue that it satisfies. The owners of the case themselves.

Therefore, a declaration of intent or accuracy was signed in Dubai at the end of last November of the “electricity for water” agreement between the UAE, Jordan and Israel under the auspices of the US administration through its presidential envoy on climate, former Secretary of State John Kerry.

The UAE-financed agreement, which will also be implemented by a government-backed Emirati company specialized in clean energy and green economy projects, includes the establishment of huge solar farms in the desert to generate electricity and export it to Israel, which will be used for its own needs, and the operation of a huge desalination plant on the Mediterranean that will provide Jordan with 200 million meters cubic meters of water annually.

The regional agreement par excellence was negotiated between the three parties in the presence and direct US involvement through the presidential envoy for climate, John Kerry, and the matter is not only related to the green economy and clean energy, but mainly aims to expand the Abrahamic normalization agreements, and Jordan's annexation to it after it previously reserved it, specifically on its political base.

It also seemed very remarkable that the announcement of the electricity-for-water agreement coincided with the thirtieth anniversary of the Madrid Peace Conference, which included a regional dimension at the moment of establishing joint cooperation between Israel and the Arab countries on various issues and files such as the economy, the environment and refugees, but on the basis of reaching a final peace agreement between Israel and the Arab countries on the basis of land for peace and the withdrawal of the Hebrew state from the occupied Arab lands in Palestine, Syria and Lebanon, in implementation of Security Council resolutions 242 and 338.

In the details, it is assumed that we are in the process of an agreement and a bilateral project between Jordan and Israel, and it was possible to request American or even Arab and international funding for it, as was the case with the Dead Sea Canal project, which did not see the light in the end due to several technical and financial difficulties and the lack of conviction of donors and financiers of its economic feasibility, unlike The new project.

While it is no longer a secret that the UAE is the godfather and sponsor of the new agreement and has prepared to finance and implement it through a specialized Emirati company backed by the government, and therefore it was not surprising that it was signed in Dubai specifically on the sidelines of the Expo 2020 exhibition. Abrahamic normalization from the economic aspect, which also contributes to strengthening and fortifying the position of the Emirates and increasing its regional influence.

Jordan had made reservations about the Abrahamic normalization agreements, which, unlike the Madrid process conference, were based on a political base that seeks a solution rather than precision to liquidate the Palestinian cause in accordance with the American Deal of the Century proposed by former US President Donald Trump, with all the negative repercussions that this has on Jordan itself in the pillars of the issue The three: Jerusalem, refugees, and borders.

After the departure of Donald Trump, his successor, Joe Biden, ignored the deal of the century, and in practice it was removed from the regional and international agenda in favor of returning in theory to the traditional option, the so-called two-state solution. The new administration also dealt coldly with the Abrahamic agreements, and the State Department refused even to circulate this term in its official documents.

But months ago, a shift occurred in the American position, with the start of the actual negotiations aimed at returning to the nuclear agreement with Iran, and then moving forward with the implementation of the withdrawal plan from Afghanistan that was drawn up by the former Republican Trump administration within a general retreat from the region that originally began with the Democratic administration of Barack Obama, which Biden and his current team have held prominent and key positions in it.

Therefore, the Joe Biden administration returned to support normalization agreements to compensate and reassure the Arab allies and Israel through attendance, care and encouragement, even on the economic front, but without reaching actual participation in planning and financing projects, especially after the suspension of the tripartite Abrahamic Investment Fund "US, Emirati and Israeli" launched by the administration Previous to support economic normalization projects between Arab countries and Israel.

The new agreement, despite the Jordanian Minister of Water Muhammad al-Najjar’s belittling it and insisting that it is merely a declaration of intentions, was directly responded to by Israeli journalist Barak Ravid, denying and talking about a fully described and applicable agreement months ago and not a feasibility study, and notes the generation of clean electric power for Israel, in exchange for its establishment Desalination plant to solve Jordan's chronic water problem.

There are political, economic and political benefits for the three parties, as Israel will pay the price of clean energy, estimated at 180 million dollars annually to the Emirati company and Jordan, which will pay Israel the price of water at an encouraging price, while the Emirates will strengthen its presence and its regional and international relations, and for Israel and instead of clean energy, no less More importantly, collective normalization with Jordan and the UAE is far from a just solution to the Palestinian issue in accordance with international legitimacy, as stated in the Madrid Process Conference and adopted by the Beirut 2002 Initiative, as it is in agreement with the minimum level among the Arab countries.

This raises several questions about not setting up the entire project in Jordan itself and desalinating water on the coast of Aqaba, especially since there are plans or ideas originally laid out for that, as MP Saleh al-Armouti said, in addition to the existence of alternative water plans for Jordan to make optimal use of its water and natural resources without providing natural prizes. Or economic benefits to Israel.

Questions were also raised about the reasons for not implementing the project in a bilateral or collective Arab context, in agreement with neighbors in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, for example.

In the Saudi context, Riyadh had objected to the project and requested its cancellation, which led to the delay in signing it for several days after a delay of months before that to pass the official budget in the Knesset, and to establish the foundations of the new Israeli government led by Naftali Bennett, knowing that he had been ready to sign since September.

The Saudi objection to the agreement came due to its negative effects on Riyadh’s giant green economy projects and clean energy, including the city of NEOM, as well as because it gives preference to the UAE in leading major regional economic projects by marginalizing and away from Riyadh.

As for the conclusions and conclusions, it is clear that we are in front of a described normalization that includes the integration of Israel into the region politically, economically and security in light of distinguished relations with Abu Dhabi and Amman and developed with Cairo, Rabat and other Arab capitals, which establishes Arab-Israeli regional cooperation without the withdrawal of the Hebrew state from the occupied Arab lands and without peace with The Palestinians guarantee the establishment of an independent and viable Palestinian state. He affirms that we are facing the implementation of the regional dimension of the Madrid Conference without America playing its role as an honest broker according to the land-for-peace rule on which the conference was based.

Despite all of the above, societal normalization, especially between Israel and Jordan, seems difficult, or almost impossible, in light of the escalation of the Jordanian popular rejection and the development of opposition to normalization into demanding constitutional and political reforms and a new social contract, as we saw in the demonstrations last week and before and after that as a result of the established fact that it is impossible to achieve peace and security. and stability in the region without solving the Palestinian issue a just, comprehensive and sustainable solution acceptable to the owners of the cause themselves.(Majed Azzam)