International discussions on escalation and a Ukrainian minister: A large number of Russian soldiers will die

The United States of America discussed with European officials Russia's build-up of its military forces on the Ukrainian border, while the Ukrainian Foreign Minister said that if Russia invaded his country, a large number of Russian soldiers would die.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that if Russia invaded his country, a large number of Russian soldiers would die.

This came in statements made by the Ukrainian minister on Wednesday, in an interview with the British "Sky News" channel, during his visit to the United Kingdom.

Kuleba stated that they are working with allies such as the United States and the United Kingdom to deter Russia, and its movement at the Ukrainian border.

Ukraine's foreign minister emphasized that his country's army was ready to defend it, adding: "They (the allies) can attack economically. We will also fight on the ground. I am sorry to say this, but many of the dead will be Russian soldiers, and we hope that President Putin does not want that to happen."

Kuleba also made it clear that they are following a three-dimensional approach, which includes political messages, sanctions and closer military cooperation with partners to deter Russia, stressing that "North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces are not expected to fight alongside his country in its war against Russia if deterrence efforts fail, but we hope in its support.

"What we want is to help avoid war or strengthen our army in the event that there is no other option because Russia is ready to go to war," the minister added.

In a related context, the United States of America discussed with European officials on Wednesday, Russia's mobilization of its military forces at the Ukrainian border.

According to a statement issued by the US State Department, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken had a telephone conversation with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, in which he discussed the Russian escalation against Ukraine.

"The two officials discussed the video meeting that took place on Tuesday between US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, and NATO options in response to the escalating Russian aggression against Ukraine," the statement said.

On those discussions, the statement said, "Secretary Blinken and Council Chair Michel reiterated the United States and the European Union's support for Ukraine's sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity."

He continued: "They also shared their concerns about Russia's build-up of its forces around Ukraine, and stressed that it would be better for Moscow to de-escalate and resume diplomacy to resolve the conflict in Donbass (eastern Ukraine), including the full implementation of the Minsk agreements."

And he indicated that Blinken and Michel also talked about "Russia will pay a quick and serious price" if it escalates its aggression against Ukraine.

On the same level, the US General Staff issued a statement in which it stated that the Chief of Staff, General Mark Milley, spoke by phone separately with his French counterparts, Thierry Burkard and Poland, Ragmund Andrzejak.

The statement said Milley and General Andrzejjak "discussed common interests and shared assessments of the current security environment in Eastern Europe, noting that Poland is a strong ally committed to NATO's deterrence and defense efforts in Europe and security efforts around the world."

As for the other contact between the US military official and his French counterpart, they discussed regional security.

The statement stressed that "the long-standing alliance between the US and French militaries plays a crucial role in maintaining peace and stability in Europe and other parts of the world."

Relations between Kiev and Moscow have been experiencing escalating tension for nearly 7 years, due to Russia's illegal annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea and its support for separatists loyal to it in Donbass.

The "Jafari Islands" and the ongoing Moroccan-Spanish maritime border dispute

Signs of a new crisis have surfaced between Morocco and Spain, which is stirring once again the stagnation of territorial waters. Madrid has submitted an official protest note to the Moroccan embassy, ​​due to Morocco's establishment of a fish farm in an area adjacent to the Chafran Islands in the Mediterranean.

Which Spain considered a step that threatens its maritime security and an illegal occupation of its territorial waters, despite the fact that Morocco denies Spanish sovereignty over these islands that Spain has controlled since the nineteenth century and adjacent to the coast of the Moroccan city of Nador, and Morocco considers them occupied islands and demands their restoration.

It is undeniable that Morocco provided a permit to establish a fish farm to a Moroccan company, which is proven by the Moroccan Official Gazette, which was issued on March 7, 2021, and the supervisor of the manufacture and installation of cages for this farm and their installation 700 meters from the Ja`fari Islands was a Spanish company. So far, nearly 16 cages have been installed since the operation began at the beginning of November 2021.

But to understand the reasons for what is happening now between Morocco and Spain, we have to invoke the file of demarcation of the maritime borders floating on the surface since Morocco, through the House of Councilors, one of the chambers of the Moroccan Parliament, on February 4, 2019 ratified two bills that seek to delineate the maritime borders of Morocco from Tangiers. in the north to Lagoira in the south. This can be considered an important turning point that Morocco made in managing its maritime areas, as the new legislation worked to define its maritime borders to include the waters and the continental shelf extending to its Moroccan desert, thus completing Morocco’s legislative ratification procedure in this field.

This new legislation comes after Morocco was late in demarcating its maritime borders for years, as Morocco seeks, in light of geopolitical changes, not to remain on the sidelines of the dynamics of organizing marine spaces, due to its distinguished maritime geographical position. This dynamic is accompanied by several operations led by Morocco, such as the adoption of the Haliotis scheme, the construction of the Tangier Med port, and the establishment of other ports, including the port of Dakhla. This dynamic requires legal tools that allow it to defend its interests. Realizing these challenges, Morocco ratified the Montego Bay Convention on the Law of the Sea in 2007. However, before Morocco became a party to the said convention, it resorted to customary principles. This is how he established his exclusive economic zone and concluded fisheries agreements with many countries.

Because Morocco has become dependent on the legislative path in order to protect its maritime borders from Spanish expansion, it has relied on legislative and regulatory texts related to its maritime jurisdiction, such as the Honorable Dahir issued on April 8, 1981 promulgating Law No. 81 to establish an exclusive economic zone of 200 nautical miles off the coast. Moroccan.

This constitutes a threat to Spain, which has long sought to extend its maritime influence, and exploited Morocco's failure to resolve the Sahara file in its favour, in order to extend Spain's maritime influence in the Atlantic Ocean. The maritime borders that unite the two sides have not been demarcated smoothly due to the overlapping of the maritime areas of the two countries.

Moreover, Spain has always taken unilateral actions in offshore areas, such as what happened by a Spanish royal decree of January 23, 2002, aimed at conducting offshore oil exploration in the offshore area between Tarfaya and the Canary Islands. This decision violated the Moroccan continental shelf. However, Article 83 of the Montego Bay Convention recommends the delimitation of the continental shelf of states whose coasts face each other by means of a bilateral agreement.

Here it should be noted that the principle of effectiveness gives Morocco the right to define the exclusive economic zone, and therefore the fishing agreement concluded with the European Union finds scope for application there.

However, Morocco has begun to take steps that disturb the Spanish side, and among the steps that Morocco has taken and put pressure on the Spanish side is Morocco downloading the Haliotis scheme, and establishing many ports that guarantee Morocco major development tools, making it a real regional maritime power, and what is happening now in the islands Al-Jaafaria must be placed in this context in order to truly understand the developments of the file.

Not to mention Morocco’s serious step in demarcating its maritime borders, which puts pressure on the Spanish side, which sought to limit Morocco’s maritime borders with several steps, including the submission of Spain and Portugal on May 11, 2009, with a request to extend the continental shelf beyond 200 miles to the Commission on the Limits of the Shelf Continental.

One of the reasons for the renewed crisis between Morocco and Spain is that the latter tried to use the hosting card of Ibrahim Ghali as a pressure card on Morocco in order for the latter not to use its relationship with the United States to advance the process of demarcating its maritime borders. However, Morocco sought not to pass the matter and escalate it. In order for the Spanish side not to take further steps in this regard.

What can be deduced from the foregoing is that the real reason for Morocco’s protest is due to Morocco’s endeavor to demarcate its maritime borders, which is a step that can prolong the Moroccan-Spanish crisis, even if it has faded at times due to the bilateral economic interests of the two countries, as it is known to all that Spain is Morocco’s first economic partner in In 2019, it accounted for 28.4% of the country's total foreign trade with the European Union. Which is equivalent to 14.89 billion dollars, according to the annual foreign trade report of the Exchange Office for the year 2019.

European countries combined accounted for 65.8% of Morocco's total foreign trade in 2019, estimated at $52.46 billion. The share of the two neighboring countries combined amounted to 52.2% of Morocco's trade with Europe. These figures indicate that the extension of the crisis between the two sides can cast a shadow on the economy of the two countries, which suffers due to many factors, the latest of which is the remnants of the Covid-19 crisis, but at the same time it suggests that the development of this crisis For other levels, it remains difficult because of the two countries’ awareness of the repercussions of the matter if it turns into an economic rupture between the two countries. The two parties are not qualified for economic escalation, and both are content with political maneuvers, the main purpose of which is to establish sovereignty and dominance over regional waters, and what is happening in the Ja`fari islands is a vivid example of that. Primarily political in nature, it is difficult to develop despite the bias of the European Union bodies to the Spanish position.

But it is likely that Spain will reinterpret its position on the demarcation of the Moroccan borders by moving the Sahara file in a way that will restore the controversy over it. However, Moroccan diplomacy is watching the situation very firmly. It can be clearly seen in its firm interaction with Spain’s reception of the leader of the Polisario Front, Ibrahim Ghali, who was rejected A Moroccan condemnation imposed on the Spanish side to deport the latter due to Morocco’s escalation and its firm dealing with this file, and in the end we can say that the crisis between the two countries is present and its pages have not ended, but it is being dealt with in the logic of the “cold war”, due to the difficulty of resolving the file for one of the parties in the circumstance. current at least.