For these reasons, drought and water crisis will continue in the southern United States next winter

This climate pattern is expected to extend at the beginning of next year to the south central and southeastern United States

After a hot and dry summer, it does not seem that the next winter will bring relief to the regions of the southern United States, which suffer from water scarcity, as experts expect it to be unusually dry and warm. What are the reasons for this continuous drought for the second year in a row? What is the role of climate change in it?

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According to the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), the period from January 2020 through August 2021 was exceptional in the climate record observed since 1895 in the southern and western United States, with the lowest total precipitation and temperatures above The average recorded in the last decade of the last century is six degrees in some places. These conditions led to an unprecedented drought.

The period from June to August of this year was the hottest ever in 5 states in the southwest of the union, while 16 other states reported the "fifth warmest summer on record" so far, according to the same source.

These exceptional conditions led to the outbreak of many fires in many areas, the decline of the reservoirs of lakes intended to store water, and the decline of the water level in Lake Mead on the Colorado River, the largest reservoir in the United States, to a historical low level, which led to the first-ever announcement of Water shortages by the federal government.

The California governor called for a voluntary 15% reduction in water consumption, at a time when local authorities for the city of San Francisco announced a shortage in the water supply of about 10%.

According to experts, this drought has been going on since 2000 in the southwest, and it has been punctuated by a few wet years, the last of which was in 2019. It may take several successive rainy years to completely remove the effects of the drought.

What are the causes of this drought?

For weather and climate experts, the fingerprints of the climatic phenomenon known as "La Niña", which began last year, are unmistakable. This phenomenon arises from a thermal anomaly of tropical surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean, characterized by an abnormally low water temperature.

It generally means drier and warmer conditions in the southern half of the United States, and wetter weather in the northern half. Scientists confirm that most of the 20 strongest La Niña events that occurred over the past 70 years, formed drier than usual conditions in the southern states.

Recent National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projections indicate that this winter will lead to below-average rainfall in the region, with warmer-than-average temperatures.

This means that the current drought will continue in the southwestern United States at least until the first months of next year, and possibly longer, and that the water scarcity crisis will worsen further in the near future.

What is the role of climate change in all of this?

Many scientific studies link the exceptionally high temperatures that were recorded in the southwestern United States last summer with global warming, especially since most climatic scenarios indicate that extreme and acute phenomena such as droughts and heat waves have increased in intensity and frequency.

These conditions lead to acceleration of evaporation and increased pressure on water sources. And persistent greenhouse gas emissions, even in rainy seasons, make rainfall less than average, leading to an intensification of droughts. The experts of the World Meteorological Organization stress that the El Nina phenomenon, like other natural phenomena, will not be spared the effects of climate change.

For all these reasons, forecasts suggest that the southwestern regions of the United States will continue to suffer from the severe drought that it has suffered during the past several years. This climatic pattern is expected to extend at the beginning of next year to the south-central and southeast, including Florida, where forecasts indicate that the percentage of the probability of precipitation in the southern half this winter will be between 40% and 60% of the normal average.