An attempt at secession threatens to erupt a new war, What is happening in Bosnia and Herzegovina?

An attempt at secession threatens to erupt a new war, What is happening in Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Bosnia and Herzegovina faces threats of a new civil war, due to political moves from the leadership of the Republika Srpska towards secession. This comes in light of serious fears of renewed violence that will bring the country back to the bloody path it went through at the beginning of the nineties of the last century.

In fulfillment of what their president, Milorad Dodik, pledged two months ago to create a "Republican Serbian" army and end with the idea of ​​"a united Bosnian state that no longer exists". The Bosnian Serb parliament passed a vote obligating the local government to organize the withdrawal of the three core Bosnian joint institutions, the army, the judiciary, and taxation, over the next six months.

In a move that threatens the sovereignty of the federal Muslim republic on its territory. And it paved the way for the secession of its Serb citizens, which threatens to erupt military actions similar to those experienced by the country between the years 1992 and 1995, and claimed the lives of more than 300,000 victims, most of whom were Muslim civilians.

At the same time, international warnings of the continuation of the series of political escalation in the country, and calls to strengthen the international peacekeeping forces there. While Eastern European countries and Russia support the Bosnian Serb leader in his steps that drag the country into a new cycle of violence.

Separation efforts

In a new development of events in Bosnia, the Parliament of the Republika Srpska decided on Friday to withdraw the powers to administer the country from the central authority in Sarajevo. By passing the decision to withdraw Serbian officials from the three main joint institutions, the army, the judiciary, and taxes.

The President of the Bosnian Serb Republic, Milorad Dodik, commented on the vote, saying: "This is the moment to leap towards freedom," referring to the separation from Bosnia, which he described as "an experience that I do not think will live, because it does not agree on any foundations for continuity." Dodik revealed last October his intention to withdraw from the constitutional document of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, pledging to submit amendments to it "that would enable the country to achieve its full autonomy", on top of which is the establishment of a judicial institution, tax authorities, and special intelligence for the Republika Srpska.

While these moves come according to what Dodik hinted years ago with the separation of his country from Sarajevo. It paved the way for ending the subjection of the autonomous republic to the sovereignty of the central government of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which was one of the peace guarantees brought by the Dayton Agreement, which ended the inter-ethnic war of the country between 1992 and 1995. What threatens to return to that quagmire of blood if the Bosnian Serbs seek to impose their de facto secession on the central government.

Serious fears experienced by the citizens of the country, who, according to reports, began stockpiling foodstuffs in anticipation of any violence that might erupt at any moment. Noting that Bosnia and Herzegovina is known for a wide spread of unlicensed weapons, as United Nations reports spoke of about 750 pieces inherited from the period of the civil war between 1992 and 1995, in addition to the increase in arms smuggling from Serbia towards it, which the Bosnian government has not been able, despite its efforts, to curb even today.

The international envoy to Bosnia, Christian Schmidt, stressed in his report to the United Nations that "the divisions between the Bosnian parties are widening, and the risk of war is more serious, while any weakness in the response to this situation may threaten the Dayton Agreement, at a time when it is increasing External interference in the affairs of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Another arena for the clash of Russia and the West?

After the international envoy to Bosnia and Herzegovina submitted his aforementioned report to the United Nations, the Russian support for the far-right Bosnian Serb leader was evident, for their strong opposition to the report and their threat to disrupt the vote on renewing the missions of the European forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina, "Eurovar", if Schmitt did not withdraw his accusations against Serb officials.

Support did not hide Dodik, who said in a newspaper interview , late last November, that: "When I go to Putin I do not need to make demands, but he who asks me what can be done to help me." He added, "The Russian president never failed me when he made his promises to me, and on this basis I have great confidence in him."

This comes at a time when Russian-Western relations are in their worst state since the Cold War, following the escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine and growing fears that Moscow's forces will invade its eastern neighbor. In addition, Alexander Lukashenko, Putin's Belarusian ally, used the migrants' card to pressure the European Union, which the latter considered a "hybrid attack" on its borders.

Observers believe that what is witnessed in Bosnia and Herzegovina is linked to all of the above, especially since the "G7" group (the European Union, America, Britain, France, Germany and Italy) condemned in a joint statement on Saturday the decision of the Bosnian Serb parliament to withdraw from the joint institutions, and the country's government warned against "Continue the deadly path." Western countries also threatened to impose sanctions on the autonomous republic, whose president has been banned since 2017, from entering the US territory.

In addition to the Russians, the countries of Eastern Europe stand by Dodik and his government, led by the government of Hungary, whose President Viktor Orban and the Bosnian Serb President have close relations. The two governments signed a broad cooperation agreement in 2019.

Ankara supports peace efforts

In a related context, the Turkish Foreign Ministry expressed its concern over the decisions of the National Assembly of the Republika Srpska, stressing that Ankara is determined to support the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

"Turkey has always been at the forefront of efforts to maintain peace and increase prosperity in the Balkans, especially in Bosnia and Herzegovina," Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Tango Bilgic said in a statement. He called on those who will be responsible for harming peace and prosperity to adhere to the constitutional and legal framework and resort to dialogue instead of unilateral measures.

Turkey has always affirmed its attachment to peace and prosperity in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and its constant keenness on its continuation in exchange for any threat to it and to the country's unity and sovereignty over its territory. This is what highlights Ankara's rapid and intense diplomatic moves to contain the existing tension and support the parties to reach a solution to it through peaceful dialogue.

Ankara's actions began with a meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Bakir Izetbegovic, Speaker of the Bosnian Peoples' Assembly (the second chamber of Parliament) last November in Istanbul. They discussed for two hours ways to contain the tension in the country. Izetbegovic praised him, "Erdogan is a very strong leader and has good relations, we have to take advantage of that."

Erdogan stressed that "since the Dayton Agreement until today, Turkey is the biggest obstacle to the occurrence of unfortunate events, as in the past in Bosnia and Herzegovina." He added, "We never want Bosnia and Herzegovina to turn into an arena of influence and competition for the parties that have accounts on this region."