Like Georgia 2008 Will the Ukraine crisis spark a third world war?

The tone of the discourse between the West and Russia is still tense, in the face of warnings that the latter is preparing a military invasion of Ukraine. While Moscow denies the matter and warns, on the other hand, that NATO is harassing its borders. Amidst an atmosphere with all its indicators pointing to the existence of a war that is being cooked on a quiet fire.

Another tense week for the world, after Moscow launched a campaign of communications in response to Washington's accusations of seeking to invade Ukraine on the ground. The head of Ukrainian military intelligence said that his eastern neighbor is massing 92,000 of its forces on the border in preparation for hostilities against his country by the end of next January. There were reports of the United States handing over maps of the presence of Russian army columns on the borders of Ukraine to its NATO allies.

The Russian authorities denied the order, accusing the United States of "intimidating the international community" and helping Ukraine "get impunity for its provocative actions." On the other hand, NATO intensified its presence in the Black Sea region by conducting military exercises with the Ukrainian Navy, and delivered two warships to it. This comes amid escalating fears of an outbreak of a wide global conflict in the region, with the Russian side hinting that what is happening is similar to "Georgia 2008".

More like "Georgia 2008"

Amid the Russian responses, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Ukraine is acting provocatively against Russia in Donbass, stressing that his country is following the developments of the situation with "concern." He added, in press statements in the capital, Moscow, that "the provocations are increasing significantly, and they are being carried out with weapons provided by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to Ukraine, and all these actions are in violation of the Minsk agreements."

Simultaneously and in the same context, the Russian intelligence issued a statement saying that “America is spreading false information about the concentration of Russian forces to invade Ukraine,” and that “NATO and Brussels contribute to Kiev’s impunity because of its provocative actions against Russia” in a situation “similar to Georgia 2008.” .

Observers read the matter as a threat to repeat the scenario of the South Ossetia war in 2008, where the Russian army entered the line of fire between the Georgians and the separatists of the region, and its tanks invaded the Georgian territory, and its planes bombed sites in the capital, Tbilisi. However, what is changing in the case of Ukraine is the combat readiness that NATO has been emphasizing, as well as European warnings against Russia's direct entry into the war in the Donbass region.

The war in eastern Ukraine broke out in 2014, after separatist groups loyal to Moscow took up arms against the Kiev authorities. The Russian authorities' denial of preparations for a land invasion of Ukrainian lands was likened to their previous denial of the invasion of Crimea a few days prior to its annexation.

Is it a global war cooking?

On the other hand, there are fears of the outbreak of a third global armed conflict as a result of the escalating tension between the West and Russia, which are jostling over two main issues: the war in Ukraine and the issue of migrants between Belarus and the European Union, which the latter described as a "hybrid attack." And the Chief of Staff of the British Army, Nicholas Carter, previously warned that "there are risks, greater than at any time since the Cold War, of a war between the West and Russia in the absence of traditional diplomatic mechanisms."

While the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has turned into a global war, this is confirmed by the increased activity of NATO in the Black Sea, and its intention to respond to any explicit aggression of Russia against the country. At a time when the Ukrainian media, in their coverage of the visit of the US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, to the country, said that "the question of Kiev's affiliation with NATO has become a foregone conclusion."

On the other hand, and in his last statement, on Tuesday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that his country had detected a "significant increase in the number of American flights near the Russian border. In the year 2020 alone, the strategic aviation of the US Air Force conducted 22 flights over the sea Okhotsk, compared to only three flights in 2019".

He added, "The flight of American bombers near his country's borders also threatens China." This statement came after a phone call he had with his Chinese counterpart, Wei Fengyi, in which they agreed to intensify joint military exercises "land, air and sea", as well as to approve a road map for developing their military cooperation until 2025.

Meanwhile, Sino-US relations are not in their best condition, with increasing fears that Beijing is seeking a military solution on the Taiwan issue. Taiwan Defense Minister Chiu Kou-cheng warned that China was preparing a military invasion of his country, and 150 Chinese warplanes violated Taiwanese airspace in early October. At a time when US President Joe Biden renewed Washington's commitment to defend Taiwan and confirmed its response in the event of any Chinese aggression against it.