International pressure to end colonialism Will France give up the islands of the Indo-Pacific?

With the beginning of the decline of its influence in Africa, and its exclusion from the "Ocos" agreement, French fears are rising, in the face of international pressures imposed on Paris to end colonialism, about losing a region that it has always considered a decisive geostrategic extension that enhances its role as a major regional player in the region.

Although most of the colonies succeeded in gaining their independence since the 1960s, a group of scattered islands and territories in the Indo-Pacific region are still under French influence and control since 1853.

However, with the outbreak of bloody confrontations, during the eighties, between the French forces and the “Kanak” people, the original inhabitants of New Caledonia, who demanded an end to the French colonization of this region in the southwest of the Pacific Ocean, the French government promised the residents of the archipelago to hold a referendum for self-determination, for independence or secession from France, according to the Nouméa Accord signed on May 5, 1998.

Today, as New Caledonia approaches the date of the third referendum, scheduled for next December, the United Nations is pressing for its part to end this colonization.

But it seems that Paris is apprehensive today that this step will be a prelude to its exclusion from the "Indo-Pacific" region, especially with the change in the map of alliances in the region, and the intensification of competition between the regional powers over these islands.

French President Emmanuel Macron had previously stated, "France would be less beautiful without New Caledonia."

Does France respond to international pressure?

Commenting on the United Nations' continuous pressure on the Elysee, to end a long era of colonization of the territory of New Caledonia, the French Minister of Overseas Territories, Sebastien Licornu, said in a media statement on Sunday, November 14: "According to the United Nations, the The archipelago of New Caledonia is part of the list of areas still to be decolonized.

While many French parties are questioning today whether the United Nations really has a say in the situation of these overseas territories, Licornu stresses that the continued presence of France in this region is a commitment to what was stated in the Nouméa Agreement, which successive presidents of the French Republic pledged. for all parties.

Thus, independence or the continuation of dependence on France will be determined by the results of the upcoming referendum and the one that follows it in 2023. In a related context, international public opinion, Licornu mentioned that France continues to support the archipelago to recover from the Corona pandemic and has recently sent medical reinforcements to it to succeed in this.

It seems that the French minister’s statement is a polishing of the French role in this region in order to legitimize its presence and justify it at the same time, in the face of the pressing international situation and demands to plan for a quick withdrawal and the region’s enjoyment of autonomy and independence of the sovereign decision, or to influence the future of the partnership with this region in the future. If you gain independence.

French experts and analysts assert, in a related context, that the French leaders who participated in the 1998 Noumea Agreement, had implicitly planned among themselves that the result of the referendum would likely lead to France preserving the territory, thanks to the decline in the proportion of the indigenous population "Kanak" and the rise in the proportion of settlers. French influence in the referendum.

However, the bets of this possibility have recently decreased with the demographic change that witnessed an increase in the number of "Kanak", expressed by the decrease in the votes of voters who reject independence from 56.7% in the first referendum to 53% in the second referendum.

While the French opinion makers cling to New Caledonia because of the nickel rich in it, which is necessary for industries and technology, and the French naval and air bases stationed in Noumea, the official authorities are concerned at the same time about losing the elements of their diplomatic, military and economic presence in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, if New Caledonia and Polynesia happen. On its legitimate independence and building new alliances and partnerships with competing powers.

Geostrategic importance for France

When Canberra announced its withdrawal from the submarine deal concluded with France last September, in favor of the new Anglo-Saxon alliance in the region, French decision makers seized this as a sign of the beginning of the deterioration and retreat of the regional role that France plays in this region of the Indo-Pacific, which threatens its geopolitical influence.

This region is considered among the areas of military and economic influence of France, which contributes to linking Europe with Asia, despite its geographical distance from the French national lands, and makes France a riparian state for the countries of Asia. Which for years opened the door to bilateral economic, defense and military alliances and partnerships with the most important of these countries.

For France, the Indo-Pacific region represents a group of French overseas provinces and territories, such as the islands of Mayotte and Reunion, the French Southern and Antarctic lands, New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna, French Polynesia and Clipperton.

Today, it is inhabited by about 1.65 million French settlers and centenarians, and those who were previously exiled to serve various punishments.

About 93% of the French economic zone is concentrated in this region, and more than 7,000 companies, in addition to the concentration of about 8,300 soldiers on a military mission. For decades, the French authorities have drained the multiple wealth of these islands, in which they committed several crimes and humanitarian atrocities, in addition to nuclear crimes such as the Polynesia crimes , which have claimed the lives of more than 110,000 people with various cancers, in what activists and journalists describe as a “cancer epidemic.” ".

But while the Asia-Pacific region continued to be considered an extension and economic and geostrategic depth for France, it seems that today there is a clear effort to re-formulate the geostrategic balances in this region, which has turned into a battleground between two major powers in the world, namely Beijing and Washington.

Therefore, Paris considers any international pressure to withdraw from this region, or any exclusion of it from any alliance formed there, as an indication of the decline of its strategic role.