France's 2022 presidency Right-wing forces compete in hatred of Muslims

The results of a survey conducted by a think-tank showed that three right-wing currents led the intentions to vote for the presidency of France in 2022. While Macron's party came out on top, far-right candidates came in second and third, while the left was out of the competition.

A few months before the French presidential elections, the features of the political battle to win the Elysee chair began to become clear, in light of the rise of right-wing currents, especially the extremist ones, and the distance of left-wing parties, led by the Socialist Party, from the real competition.

According to the results of a survey conducted by the Institute for Opinion Studies and Marketing in France and Abroad, for the French Radio South, President Emmanuel Macron, who has emerged from the mantle of the Socialist Party, leads the vote with 25%, while the far-right, led by Marine Le Pen, is fighting for the second place. (16 percent), who is facing competition for the first time from a candidate from the same political family, the Jewish-Algerian journalist Eric Zemmour (14 percent).

However, in this poll, which was published on October 11, the Gaullist movement (centre-right) led by Xavier Bertrand, president of the Hauts-de-France region (16 percent), rose to compete with the far-right candidates (Le Pen and Zemmour) for the second place, which qualifies it To rise to the second round with Macron, and then many accounts and alliances will change.

At the same time, the leftist movement remained out of the competition for the second round, despite the election of the Socialist Party, Mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo (6 percent of voting intentions), as its candidate in the next presidential elections, with the support of the party's Secretary-General Olivier Faure.

As for the rest of the small candidates, whose number does not exceed 30, many of them will fall before the barrier of obtaining 500 recommendations from the "big electors", represented in the two deputies of the French Parliament, as well as the French representatives in the European Parliament, as well as mayors.

Corona Will Macron save?

Macron is betting on a repeat of the 2017 scenario, when he climbed to the second round against the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, and defeated her overwhelmingly (66.1 percent), as the least bad of the candidates compared to many of the losing candidates.

But the electoral battle may be more difficult if he faces a candidate from the Gaullist right or even the center-left, because alliances in the second round are usually decisive, especially since he only receives a quarter of the voting intentions, and needs 50 percent to win the presidency.

Macron seeks to be the first French president since the era of Jacques Chirac (1995-2007) to win two presidential terms, after the failure of Nicolas Sarkozy (2007-2012) and Francois Hollande (2012-2017).

And if Macron won in 2017, thanks to his polarization of a segment of the Socialist Party and another from the right, and a third of French people of Algerian origin, and presented himself as an independent and social-liberal centrist candidate, at the end of his first term he aligned more to the right, and even came close to the extreme right.

Macron began his political career within the Socialist Party (2006-2009), and his star rose thanks to Socialist President Hollande, who appointed him Deputy Secretary-General of the Presidency in 2012, then Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs in 2014, to resign in 2016 and withdraw from the ship of socialists mired in crises, In preparation for the 2017 presidential elections, which he won.

But the most difficult crisis that Macron faced at the beginning of his presidential term was the yellow vest demonstrations, which erupted on November 17, 2018, to denounce the difficult social conditions and refuse to raise taxes that have exhausted workers and the middle class.

The yellow vest demonstrations managed to mobilize 282,000 demonstrators in Paris and many French cities, according to the "France 24" (governmental) channel. At the time, they demanded Macron's departure, but were met with extreme violence by the police, which was condemned by several French and international human rights organizations.

Some opinions went at the time that the “yellow jackets” movement ended early Macron’s ambition for a second presidential term, especially since it lasted for many months, but the Corona epidemic that struck the world in 2019, was like a life jacket thrown to the French President, allowing him to impose preventive measures that contributed to Weakening the momentum of the demonstrations condemning his anti-social policies.

Macron also took advantage of the growing feelings of hostility towards immigrants and Muslims in particular, after the massacre of a French teacher who showed his students insulting pictures of the Prophet Muhammad (may God bless him and grant him peace).

The matter did not stop there. Rather, he went on to provoke Algeria through statements in which he questioned the existence of an Algerian nation, in order to attract the voices of the extreme right, whose size is escalating, given the media agitation against Muslims and immigrants.

However, this policy would lose Macron about 1.2 million of the votes of voters of Algerian origin that were crucial in the first round of the 2017 elections, not to mention hundreds of thousands of French Muslims of different origins.

The far right seeks victory for the first time

The unprecedented rise of the right-wing trend in France in recent years has led to the emergence of a new name on the political scene from the anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant far-right, Eric Zemmour, who is receiving massive media attention from the French press.

Zemmour's extremist positions made him outbid Marine Le Pen, who led the far-right for many years, but today she is facing a fateful battle, not only against Macron, who defeated her in 2017, but also against Zemmour, who is attracting part of her electoral base.

On October 5, the results of the opinion poll put Zemmour ahead of Le Pen, but before the end of this month, the latter had led him by two points, and was second behind Macron, accompanied by the Gaullist right-wing candidate.

But Zemmour not only attracts voters from the far-right who resent Le Pen, but also scoops from the center-right bowl, in addition to the support of a segment of French Jews for him, especially since this category is permeated in the French media sector, which explains this "exaggerated" interest in Zemmour even before announcing his candidacy.

It is noted that the extreme right represents about 30 percent of voting intentions, and has become superior to the left in all its spectrums, which means a change in the electoral map, as well as in the general mood of the voters, in light of record levels of boycott that were not familiar before.

Less than 30 percent took part in the regional elections last June, in which Macron's (Republic on the Move) and Le Pen's (National Rally) party lost, while the center-right and left-wing parties won.

Although regional elections do not usually experience the same enthusiasm as presidential elections, and their results do not necessarily reflect the size of each party, they do provide a hint or indication of the possibility of unexpected surprise in the upcoming presidential elections.

The results of sounding opinions did not put Macron from the beginning at the forefront of the candidates in the 2017 presidential election, but in the end he won the bet, although he was described as a “semi-unknown candidate”, and the scenario may be repeated with another candidate who was not considered in 2022.

The Gaullist right has strong cards

The Gaullist right or the center-right represented by the "Republicans" party is closely watching the presidential race, although it has not yet decided a candidate for the presidential elections next April.

The party postponed the decision to decide until December 4, to ensure the entry of one candidate, especially since several names wished to run for the presidency.

However, the most likely of these names is Xavier Bertrand, who received the highest percentage of voting intentions (16 percent), five points ahead of Valerie Pecres, president of the Ile-de-France region (11 percent).

This gives "Republicans" at least 27 percent of voting intentions when entering with one candidate, a higher percentage than that granted to Macron, making the party's candidate a strong contender for the nomination paper for the second round of the presidential elections scheduled for next May.

And the "Republicans" victory in the recent regional elections against the candidates of the Macron and Le Pen parties, gives them a dose of motivation to compete for at least the second round, and to regain the presidential seat, which they lost in 2012.

But the "Republicans" may not be the only representatives of the family of right-wing Gaullists, as Michel Barnier, the European Union's negotiator on Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit), also decided to enter the electoral fray, through a new party he founded last February, under the name "European Patriots". .

Barnier's fame at the European level does not necessarily mean that he represents a weight in the French arena, as he may not even be able to collect 500 recommendations from large voters to enter the presidency.

The left has not recovered from the shock yet

The left parties of all stripes do not seem ready to seriously compete for the presidency, given their division, as well as Macron's success in attracting a significant part of the frameworks and base of the Socialist Party, of which he was a member.

Even if Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo wins the Socialist Party nomination, she is at the bottom of the ladder of voting intentions compared to left-wing candidates such as radical communist leader Jean-Luc Melenchon (7-8 percent of voting intentions) and Yannick Gadot, leader of the Green Party (8 percent).

The Socialist Party is waiting for a surprise or the success of its alliances within the leftist family, which represents an electoral bloc estimated by the French media at about 30 percent, to reverse the results of the opinion poll, especially if it has the support of the French of Algerian and Maghreb origin.

And if the initial picture gives Macron and Le Pen a repeat of the 2017 presidential scenario, the next five months may hold many surprises, whether from the "Republican" candidate or from Zemmour supported by one wing of the extreme right, and another from the right, in addition to a section of the Jewish lobby in France.