Crushing the revolution and saving Assad, How did the Russian intervention change the balance of power in Syria?

The Russian intervention caused the Syrian regime to regain the city of Aleppo, displacing thousands of civilians

Idlib - The most pessimistic did not doubt that the issue of the fall of the Syrian regime before September 30, 2015 had become inevitable in the face of the Syrian opposition's military strikes and the loss of more than two-thirds of the area of ​​Syria and the retreat of its forces to defend the centers of major cities and the capital, Damascus, before Russia turned the equation upside down. on the back.

Six years ago from today's date, the Syrian regime controlled only about 22% of the Syrian territory, while the Syrian opposition was extracting lands and geographical spaces one after another based on the model of guerrilla warfare and street fighting, in an unconventional model to confront the regime's army.

But the Russian military intervention marked a turning point in the history of the Syrian revolution and changed the balance of power on the ground, as Moscow used its enormous military power to push the Syrian opposition to retreat and lose strategic areas that the Syrian regime did not dare approach throughout the days of the revolution and its battles.

Start of intervention

Although Russia has been supporting the Syrian regime with weapons since the beginning of the military conflict with the armed Syrian opposition, it did not actually engage in the fighting for it until the end of September 2015 under the pretext of war against the Islamic State, and then the Russian warplanes carried out its first raids on several affiliated areas. For the Syrian opposition in Aleppo, Homs and Idlib.

According to Syrian opposition sources, the first Russian raids targeted Jaysh al-Izza, one of the armed Syrian opposition formations in Hama countryside, and more than 30 of its members were killed during the raids.

The Director-General of Jusoor Center for Studies, Muhammad Sarmini, believes that the Russian intervention in Syria came based on Iranian incitement and encouragement led by the former commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani, according to the Iranian version published after Soleimani’s killing, and many indicators showed American approval. -at least implied- on this post.

Sarmini said - in an interview with AJ news - that Russia began its intervention in a show way using severe aerial bombardment, which led to a significant increase in the number of civilian casualties, but it helped break all the forces opposing the regime, and effectively changed the course of events in Syria since then.

Russian forces followed a scorched earth policy in Syria to regain areas from the Syrian opposition.

Fall of cities and displacement

With the extensive involvement of the Russian Air Force in the Syrian regime’s war against the opposition, the latter began to weaken and retreat from strategic areas in northern and southern Syria, in light of the scorched-earth policy that turned Syrian cities into ruins.

The Russian intervention is one of the main reasons for the Syrian opposition’s loss of the city of Aleppo, which is described as the capital of the north, where the Russians carried out a large-scale military campaign to cover the regime’s ground attack on the eastern neighborhoods of the city in 2016 using internationally prohibited weapons.

The campaign resulted in the killing and wounding of thousands and massive destruction of the city’s infrastructure, and ended with the withdrawal of the Syrian opposition from the city towards the western and northern countryside, in addition to the displacement of thousands of civilians from their homes in what was described as the widest campaign of forced displacement of opponents of the Syrian regime.

The fall of cities and regions continued, and forced displacement by green buses became a title for the coming years of the Russian intervention.

Military analyst Colonel Abdul-Jabbar al-Akeidi describes the fall of Aleppo in the hands of the regime, as it led to the fall of many areas that were in the possession of the opposition, such as dominoes, as a result of the heavy Russian military support from the Hmeimim base and the Russian Sukhoi aviation.

Al-Aqidi indicated - in an interview with Aj news - that Russia prevented the fall of the Syrian regime militarily by restoring several areas by providing extensive logistical support to its forces.

In 2017 and 2018, the Syrian opposition lost important strongholds in Damascus and its countryside in Ghouta, and the Russians committed bloody massacres in the cities of Douma, Harasta, Arbin and others, before the Syrian regime used chemical weapons to force the opposition to surrender and leave to the north of Syria.

The violent Russian bombing caused widespread destruction in the city of Aleppo and forced the opposition to withdraw from it bloody outcome

In the latest field report of the Syrian Civil Defense issued on September 20, entitled "No Signs to Stop the Killing and Displacement of Syrians", coinciding with the anniversary of the Russian military intervention in Syria, the team documented violations against civilians over a period of 6 years.

According to the report, more than 12,000 civilians in Syria have been killed and wounded by Russian forces since their military intervention there, specifically during the period from September 30, 2015 to September 20, 2015.

The number of Russian attacks, according to the documentation of the Syrian Civil Defense, reached 5586, and these are not all attacks, but only what the Civil Defense teams responded to.

According to the Civil Defense, the Russian attacks focused on city centers, civilian homes, and vital facilities. 68% of these attacks targeted civilian homes, with 38 attacks, while agricultural fields ranked second with 16% of the attacks, with 885 attacks.

The Russian attacks on shops amounted to 6%, with 33 attacks, then hospitals and medical centers with 70 attacks, civil defense centers with 60 attacks, popular markets with 53 attacks, and schools with 46 attacks, 23 attacks targeting camps housing displaced people, and 35 attacks targeting mosques and places of worship. And 18 attacks that targeted bakeries, in addition to dozens of attacks that targeted public buildings, gas stations and other facilities.

The future of Russian intervention

With the expansion of its military bases in Syria and the conclusion of economic investment contracts in the areas under the control of the Syrian regime, it seems that Russia will not leave Syria anytime soon, and according to political and field indicators and developments, the Russian presence will remain for a long time.

Muhammad Sarmini believes that Russia came to Syria in order to stay, and this applies to Iranian interference as well; Both of them invested politically, militarily, and economically in reaching the current situation, but they did not reap the actual results of this intervention, and they need several decades before achieving these results.

According to Sarmini, Russia will work to install a friendly political system in Syria, provided that this system of government is characterized by political and societal stability, ensuring that it will not be exposed to major vibrations in the future that affect Russian interests.